What You Need to Know
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has forecasted a modest 0.5% growth for Mozambique’s economy this year, citing uncertainty and foreign currency shortages. Following a recession in 2025, growth is expected to accelerate to 2.7% next year. The IMF highlights the impact of external factors, including the Middle East crisis, on Mozambique’s economic prospects.
Africa-Press – Mozambique. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that Mozambique’s economy will grow by only 0.5% this year due to uncertainty and a shortage of foreign currency, following a recession in 2025, before accelerating to 2.7% next year.
“No growth was already recorded last year, and we project that, due to high uncertainty and foreign exchange shortages, economic activity will remain weak in Mozambique,” said the deputy head of the regional studies division of the African Department, António David, in an interview with Lusa.
The economist noted that, although gas projects could boost growth later in the decade, until then this Portuguese-speaking African country will be “heavily affected” by the war in the Middle East.
“As Mozambique is an oil-importing country, it is significantly affected by the supply shock caused by the Middle East crisis, which will also heavily affect growth prospects for 2026,” he said.
Praising the Mozambican authorities’ ability to keep inflation below 5%, António David warned of “very acute budgetary pressures” and added that “revenue mobilisation is being affected by tax exemptions under special regimes”.
Until the end of the decade, David noted, there will be no significant revenues from natural gas exploitation, so the government must “place fiscal policy on a viable trajectory, reducing public debt, stabilising the economy, increasing foreign exchange availability and stimulating private sector growth”.
“Growth in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to remain relatively stable, at 4.3% in 2026 and 4.4% in 2027,” according to the World Economic Outlook, published at the start of the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings taking place this week in Washington.
The region’s main economies “continue to benefit from macroeconomic stabilisation and reform efforts undertaken in the past,” IMF economists noted.
Angola is expected to grow by 2.3%, above the 2.1% previously forecast by the IMF, and is projected to accelerate to 2.6% next year, although still significantly below the regional average, which is 4.4% in 2027.
Equatorial Guinea, meanwhile, is expected to remain in recession this year and next, with GDP contractions of 2.7% in 2026 and 1.3% in 2027, prolonging an economic crisis that has lasted more than a decade.
In the interview with Lusa, António David said Cape Verde is expected to record growth of 5%, in line with projections for Guinea-Bissau.
Earlier this week, the IMF revised its global growth forecast down from 3.3% to 3.1% in 2026, due to the impact of the Middle East conflict, presenting a set of scenarios showing the possible effects of a prolonged war.
In the baseline scenario, global growth is projected at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027, “slower than the recent pace of around 3.4% in 2024–2025”.
The 2026 forecast was revised down by 0.2 percentage points, while the 2027 forecast remains unchanged compared with the latest global update issued in January 2026.
The IMF notes that, prior to the conflict, forecasts were expected to be revised upwards, meaning the downgrade is largely due to disruptions caused by the war.
Mozambique has faced significant economic challenges in recent years, including a recession in 2025 and ongoing foreign currency shortages. The country’s economy is heavily reliant on external factors, such as global oil prices and regional stability, which have been adversely affected by conflicts like the Middle East crisis. Despite these challenges, Mozambique has potential growth avenues, particularly through its natural gas projects, although substantial revenues from these resources are not expected until later in the decade.
