What You Need to Know
Mozambique’s economic activity has shown consistent improvement, with the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) indicating the best private sector conditions in ten months. The increase in new orders and workforce numbers reflects a positive outlook for 2026, despite ongoing inflation concerns. Companies are optimistic about growth driven by sales forecasts and efficiency improvements.
Africa-Press – Mozambique. Mozambique’s economic activity accelerated in December for the third consecutive month, with the “best improvement in private sector conditions for ten months” and “robust optimism” for 2026, according to the PMI index released on Tuesday by Standard Bank.
The monthly survey, consulted by Lusa, states that the December Mozambique Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) “signalled the best improvement in private sector conditions for ten months in December, driven by the strongest increase in workforce numbers in over two-and-a-half years.”
“Rising levels of new business and output supported firms in their decisions to hire, purchase more inputs and, for the first time since last April, increase their stocks. However, the rate of input cost inflation remained at one of its highest levels in 2025,” it said.
“It should be noted that the rate of increase in employment across the private sector economy was the fastest recorded since April 2023,” the study adds, pointing out that “efforts to boost workforces were observed across all major sectors, with firms often highlighting increased staff requirements due to an improvement in customer demand.”
In December, the volume of new orders “rose for the third successive month, with the upturn stronger than the series trend,” despite “losing pace from November’s 17-month high.”
“Companies signalled that the receipt of new work enabled an increase in output, which has now risen in each of the past six months. The overall uplift in business activity was moderate, with the most pronounced rises seen among service providers and wholesale & retail companies,” it reads.
The PMI index had risen from 49.1 in June to positive territory in July, at 50.7, but in August it fell back to a negative figure, to 49.9, and in September to 49.4, recovering in October to 50.4 points, in November to 50.8 and in December to 50.9.
PMI indicators above 50 points indicate an improvement in business conditions compared to the previous month, while indicators below that figure show a deterioration.
The study adds that with regard to the outlook for 2026, Mozambican companies are “robustly optimistic” and that the “12-month outlook was the strongest since last September and better than the average seen in 2025.”
“Firms reported that forecasts of increased sales, capacity gains from staff additions, new products and efficiency improvements would all help to improve output over the next 12 months,” the document notes.
Quoted in the study, Standard Bank Mozambique’s chief economist, Fáusio Mussá, notes that the inflation forecast for the end of 2026 remains at 5.6% year-on-year, “supported by prospects of the USD/MZN pair remaining stable.”
“In a forward-looking analysis, the PMI suggests some recovery in the business outlook, with the PMI future business expectations sub-index up for the month, after declining in the previous two months. Most likely respondents’ factor in prospects of liquified natural gas (LNG) projects progress supporting growth,” Mussá points out.
For 2026, the chief economist adds, Mozambique’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 1.1%: “For 2026, we forecast GDP growth at 1.1% y/y, denoting a slow recovery from our estimates of a 0.7% growth in 2025. Mozal likely shutting down at the end of the first quarter of 2026 adds pressure to an economy that remains affected by fiscal and foreign exchange (FX) liquidity pressure.”
Mozambique has faced various economic challenges over the years, including inflation and liquidity issues. The country has been working towards stabilizing its economy, particularly through investments in sectors like liquefied natural gas (LNG). Recent improvements in the PMI indicate a potential recovery, as businesses adapt to changing market conditions and consumer demands.
The PMI is a crucial indicator of economic health, reflecting the performance of the private sector. A reading above 50 suggests expansion, while below indicates contraction. Mozambique’s recent PMI trends show a gradual recovery, signaling a shift towards improved business conditions and increased optimism among Moz
