By
Suasti Putri Daeli
Africa-Press – Mozambique. In recent years, the technology competition between the United States and China has escalated significantly, covering the fields of semiconductors, 5G networks, artificial intelligence (AI), and potassium technology. This competition is not only manifested in the form of export bans on advanced technology and investment restrictions but also in each country’s efforts to build its own global technology bloc. The author argues that this technological competition threatens the stability of the international system because it causes fragmentation of the global economy, increases geopolitical tensions, and encourages other countries to choose alignments that have the potential to deepen international conflict. According to a report by the Brookings Institution (2021), US-China geopolitical tensions have created a “New Fragmentation” that disrupts the global trading system and increases the risk of conflict. This article will therefore discuss the technological rivalry between the US and China that could destabilize the world order through three main arguments.
Impact on Global Supply Chains
One of the most obvious impacts of technology competition between the United States and China is the disruption of global supply chains, particularly in the semiconductor sector. Since 2019, the United States has begun imposing a series of restrictions on Chinese technology companies such as Huawei and SMIC, as well as restrictions on advanced chips to China. This move has triggered the so-called “Chip War,” a fierce competition for control of advanced semiconductor technology. The global dependence on semiconductor supplies mainly from East Asian regions such as Taiwan and South Korea exacerbates the situation. Small and developing countries that depend on access to technology from the two giants are the hardest hit, forced to face the difficult choice between allying with the US technology bloc and the Chinese bloc, which ultimately disrupts their economic stability and foreign policy.
According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) report (2022). Tensions in the global semiconductor supply chain due to these restrictive policies not only slow innovation but also increase production costs across the world’s technology sectors. In addition, the OECD (2021) notes that uncertainty in the supply chain causes developing countries to experience reduced access to critical technologies that can slow their economic growth. Thus, US-China technology competition not only affects the two countries but also threatens global economic integration as a whole.
Technology Segregation and Global Fragmentation
In addition to disrupting global supply chains, technological competition between the United States and China also accelerates the phenomenon of technological decoupling that leads to fragmentation of the world order. The United States is urging its allies, such as Japan, South Korea, the Netherlands, and EU countries, to limit access to China’s strategic technologies, such as advanced semiconductors and artificial intelligence. On the other hand, China responded by strengthening the “Made in China 2025” program and developing domestic technology supply chains to reduce dependence on Western countries. As a result, the world has begun to divide into two major blocs: the Western technology bloc and the Chinese technology bloc.
This fragmentation poses a serious threat to the globalization process that has driven world economic growth over the past decade. Cross-border trade and investment relations are becoming more polarized, and international collaboration in technology is becoming increasingly difficult. According to a report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) (2023), this economic separation could reduce global gross domestic product (GDP) by up to 7% in the long run, especially if countries are forced to choose between two incompatible technology ecosystems. Meanwhile, a World Economic Forum (WEF) report (2022) warns that this digital fragmentation will exacerbate the technology gap between developed and developing countries, creating new inequalities in access to innovation.
In the context of international relations, technological decoupling is not only an economic issue but also a strategic issue. It deepens mistrust between major powers and reduces the space for multilateral diplomacy in the field of technology. If this phenomenon continues to grow without intervention, the global future could turn out to be more fragmented, uncertain, and prone to open conflict.
Increasing Geopolitical Tensions
The technological competition between the United States and China not only impacts the global economy but also exacerbates geopolitical tensions in various regions, especially in the Indo-Pacific. The United States and its allies formed various strategic initiatives, such as the Indo-Pacific Strategy, AUKUS (Australia-UK-US Pact), and Quad (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue between the US, Japan, Australia, and India), to stem China’s influence. One of the main focuses of these alliances is the development of strategic technologies, including artificial intelligence (AI), 5G networks, cyber technology, and quantum computing. Technological competition has thus become an integral part of each country’s national security strategy.
This competition gives rise to a new technological arms race, with countries vying to master strategic innovations that could change the global balance of power. According to the RAND Corporation report (2022), dominance in AI and quantum computing will determine military and economic superiority in the next few decades. Therefore, both the US and China are pouring massive investments into accelerating these technological innovations. This competition not only threatens peace in the Indo-Pacific region but also increases the risk of technology-based armed conflict.
Furthermore, according to the analysis of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (2023), tensions in the field of technology have the potential to accelerate instability in other regions such as the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. If this trend continues without the framework of effective international diplomacy, the world will face the risk of open technology-based conflicts that are far more destructive than before.
We can clearly conclude that the technological competition between the US and China has serious implications for global stability. The disruption of semiconductor supply chains, fragmentation of the world’s technology, and rising geopolitical tensions show that the world is moving towards a fragmented and unstable state. If this phenomenon continues without serious diplomatic efforts in the field of technology, potential conflicts between major countries could break out sooner than imagined. Technology, which should be a tool to strengthen the progress of civilization, has the potential to trigger tension and even confrontation.
Therefore, it is imperative to encourage the formation of international cooperation in the field of technology and diplomatic approaches. The world needs new multilateral platforms or the strengthening of existing forums, such as the G20 or the United Nations Group of Governmental Experts (UNGGE), to discuss the regulation of advanced technology collectively. Countries should agree on basic principles regarding technology transfer, cyber security, and the use of artificial intelligence and strong technology for peaceful purposes. In addition, it is important to ensure that developing countries are not marginalized in this era of technological transformation.
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