Africa-Press – Mozambique. Earlier this month, I had the privilege of coordinating a critical minerals dialogue hosted by ALN Academy in collaboration with the South African Institute of International Affairs.
What became clear from that discussion—and is now playing out in real time across the continent—is that Africa’s critical mineral wealth is no longer just a development issue. It is a political economy flashpoint.
Two headlines from recent weeks capture this tension. In Nigeria, the government is backing a rare earth metals processing plant worth $400 million.
The plant promises jobs, in-country beneficiation and local value addition—a rare example of ambition meeting infrastructure.
In the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), a US-brokered peace deal with Rwanda is being framed not only as a diplomatic win but as a minerals-for-stability pact, laying the groundwork for US investment in cobalt, tantalum and other high-demand inputs for green technologies and defence systems.
On the surface, both developments appear to signal progress.
But they also reveal the underlying dilemma at the heart of Africa’s mineral moment: how can governments attract investment, meet rising public expectations and manage geopolitical pressures without repeating the extractive, inequitable models of the past?
Investor-government-community triangle
Investors are increasingly looking for stable, Environmental, Social, and Governance-aligned entry points into African markets. They want clarity on taxes, ownership structures, and export rules. But governments are also under pressure, politically and fiscally.
They need to show that mineral wealth is delivering returns for their citizens: jobs, infrastructure, and revenues that can fund public services.
Communities, in turn, want to be consulted, not just compensated.
They want safe working conditions, access to benefits and real accountability when operations go wrong. In the DRC, mineral wealth has long been associated with violence, displacement and environmental harm. In Nigeria, artisanal miners have often operated in informal systems, outside legal protection or economic inclusion.
What links these cases is not just the minerals themselves, but the systems that manage them—or fail to. A processing plant alone won’t address inequality. A peace deal tied to mineral flows won’t succeed without governance structures that deliver trust.
Read: Africa must determine own future
Why the rule of law matters
At our webinar, this issue came into sharp focus. While countries like Zimbabwe and Namibia have introduced policies to limit unprocessed mineral exports, the success of these efforts depends on more than policy declarations.
Investors and legal experts alike pointed to the importance of predictable, transparent legal systems that are not easily reversed or undermined.
Commercial actors are no longer content with one-off agreements. They are looking for joint ventures with long-term certainty, clear tax regimes, and functional legal dispute mechanisms.
These are not abstract requirements. They are fundamental for financing, especially for midstream projects that involve refining and regional logistics.
More importantly, the webinar highlighted that Africa’s opportunity lies not in volume but in value. Countries like Zambia and Mozambique are experimenting with corridor-based development, integrating infrastructure with community benefit agreements and processing capabilities.
The AfCFTA Investment Protocol, if implemented with integrity, could support harmonisation and reduce regulatory friction across borders. But this requires capable institutions and legal frameworks that are not just in place, but in use.
One speaker reminded us that traceability, land tenure, and contract enforcement are no longer optional. They are key to making the sector bankable and sustainable.
Rule of law, then, is not simply a legal principle. It is the enabling environment through which fairness, accountability and long-term growth are made possible. When laws are applied inconsistently or contracts are changed overnight, it is not just investors who lose faith. Communities lose trust, and governments lose the ability to leverage these assets for the common good.
Way forward
Africa’s mineral future cannot be left to geopolitical competition or domestic politics alone. It must be anchored in governance frameworks that balance the interests of investors, governments and communities in a transparent and enforceable manner.
We need to move from extraction to strategy.
That means embedding community benefit frameworks in the design of mineral corridors, creating incentives tied to real value addition and investing in the infrastructure and talent needed to support downstream industrialisation. It also means using regional tools like AfCFTA to reduce duplication and uncertainty across borders.
Critical minerals are shaping the next phase of global economic growth. But if Africa is to lead—not just supply— we must stop thinking of minerals as commodities and start treating them as political choices. Who benefits, how, and on whose terms, is the real question.
The writer is an analyst focused on Africa’s socio-economic and political landscape and the outcomes and impact of this landscape on everyday people
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