Africa-Press – Namibia. ANALYSTS say Swapo may lose its support base – unless the party gets rid of its current image of being corrupt and unable to deliver.
Moreover, it is believed it would lose support in metropolitan and urban areas if not careful, and, similar to South Africa’s ruling African National Congress (ANC), it is becoming a rural-based party, they say.
This comes after the ANC dipped below 50% of the vote for the first time in South Africa’s democratic history in its recent municipal elections. According to official results, the ANC got 46% of the vote, while the main opposition, the Democratic Alliance (DA) garnered 22% of the vote.
The Economic Freedom Fighters had 10% support, the Zulu Inkatha Freedom Party 6%, and the Freedom Front Plus and the newly minted Action SA each got 2% of the vote.
Political analyst Ndumba Kamwanyah says this outcome can only mean one thing for Swapo, which is “bad news”. He says what happened in South Africa will likely be the case in Namibia.
“Both the ANC and Swapo are losing their support base, especially in urban areas and metropolitan cities/towns. As a result, they are inching towards becoming rural-based parties,” he says.
Kamwanyah says this trend suggests that liberation credentials do not weigh as heavily any more. Voters are becoming more critical, he says. “Issue preferences are what’s driving voters now, instead of liberation struggle credentials,” he says.
The assumption is that there will be a further decline in Swapo’s popularity in future elections – especially in urban areas. Kamwanyah says the 2024 election will make or break Swapo unless the party turns around its current image of being corrupt and failing to deliver.
“This would also be heightened by looming division as the party gears towards its elective congress. Bad news everywhere for the people’s party,” he says.
Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) Graham Hopwood says it may be possible for Swapo to turn around its fortunes, because the party has not sunk as low as the ANC.
“At the last election, the party was still able to gain 65% support,” he says.
Hopwood says if a party is dominated by corrupt tendencies, it will fail to deliver adequate public services to citizens because it has skewed priorities.
“And this is what is happening in South Africa. The lessons for Swapo are obvious: Tackle corruption within the party and the government, and focus on improving service delivery,” he says.
He says the recent by-elections have shown the party’s support levels to be steady, partly because the ruling party is not facing a significant challenge from the opposition yet. FISHROT LINKS
Former National Fishing Corporation of Namibia (Fishcor) chief executive officer Mike Nghipunya last week said fishing quota proceeds of more than N$81 million were paid to Swapo through the bank accounts of two law firms.
Auditing firm Deloitte, which carried out a forensic investigation into the use of fishing quotas by Fishcor, in a report dated June 2021, however, said about N$6 million was paid from an account of the law firm De Klerk Horn Coetzee Incorporated to Swapo.
Hopwood says the claims emerging in the Fishrot bail hearing are reinforcing the public perception that Swapo is inextricably linked to corruption. “The public sense of outrage over Fishrot in general is likely to grow as more details emerge – especially during a trial that could dominate 2022, and this will make life more difficult for the ruling party,” he says.
Hopwood says the party needs to reinvent itself. “And we still haven’t seen proper criminal investigations into other scandals like the SME Bank, August 26, the Kora Awards, and more.
“Only if the party tackles corruption head-on and clears the corrupt from their ranks will they be able to change this public perception,” he says.
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