By Abba Hamisu Sani
Africa-Press – Nigeria. Dr. Gwandu is an economist and lecturer with the Department of Business management Kaduna Polytechnic.In this interview with Africa Press ,he analyzes the prospect of Dangote refinery and how it can make Nigeria strong economically and make it an exporter of refined oil beside its traditional export of crude oil.
He speaks at length on the importance of the Nigerian government to support Dangote refinery not to sabotage it.
Excerpts
African Press: Dangote refinery has begin to supply gasoline to after a week or more than of scarcity and high rate of the product. How do you think this will help in changing the narrative as Nigeria ever supplied or refined oil for more than 28 years ?
Dr: Abdullahi Gwandu well, Nigeria as we all know is rich in mineral resources. I don’t know the ranking of Nigeria globally or in Africa but I want to tell you that Nigeria is among the top nations that were gifted by God with a lot of mineral resources, different kinds of mineral resources not just oil and gas, iron and steel, coal, gold, diamond name it, they are uncountable both discovered and yet to be discovered, we have a lot of them those mineral resources if properly and well explored, properly managed and control for the benefit of nigeria, they are more than enough to make Nigeria rich.
Many countries of the world that are developed, and many countries of the world that are economically vibrant don’t have a quota of what Nigeria has.
Our main problem is poor management, lack of accountability and lack of patriotism.
The commitment to do what is right is not just there and that is just what we are lacking and the moment we reverse that I assure you Nigeria will be on a greater height economically.
Africa Press -Dangote has faced a lot of challenges before he reached the present level ,so ,what lesson do you think he should learn from this huzzle ,so that he can consider the situation of the country and moderate his price?
Dr. Gwandu on the issue of Dangote facing challenges is normal whoever succeed in anything that person or organization or government should have it at the back of their mind to expect opposition, they should expect criticism, they shouldn’t expect condemnations even sometimes envy and enmity and these are the challenges Dangote was facing and is still facing.
He faced it before but don’t forget Dangote is a dogged fighter. He has been swimming in stormy water in the past and he broke through I believe even now of all the challenges he is facing from the oil mafias, corrupt government officials and other unprogressive forces. I still believe he will break through.
I remember in the past around 2012 or so I think before around 2007 when Obasanjo was leaving he sold Kaduna, Port Harcourt refineries and the one in Delta. The same oil mafians went and deceived late Umar Musa Yar,adua and he reversed the sale. All they want is to continue importing oil.
They don’t want Nigeria to be independent ,they don’t want Nigeria to be economically free they want to hold Nigeria to juggle and the sale was reversed and that ginger Dangote to start building his own independent refinery and today the refinery has taken up today that refinery is the biggest single train refinery in the world and is functional.
l believe he will overcome it. That refinery is a game changer in Nigeria and if he succeeds in managing it well, the economic benefit is not only to Dangote but the entire Nigeria.
Africa Press -What are the other benefits?
Number one it has capacity to stop complete oil importation for Nigeria and that means Nigeria will be free, Nigeria will be independent economically, Nigeria will be self dependent and our foreign exchange demand for dollar and other foreign currencies to import oil will fall down by not less than 40-50% and that will strengthen the value of naira. It will create a lot of employment for Nigerians, other value chains that Nigeria will benefit from. Alot of revenue will be generated for Nigeria and Nigeria economy will be stronger. Adding to that since competition is eliminated what they called landing cost for oil will also go, so we expect if Nigeria government collaborate and cooperate with him the price for PMS and other petroleum product will drastically fall down, will drastically reduce the multiplier effect for all Nigeria positive multiplier effect beyond measure everybody will benefit from it.
Likely I don’t have the figure but I forecast by the time he starts selling his oil to Nigeria and in naira probably pump price may fall to 500 to 600 naira within that range. Let us just pray that the government will think and reverse its own position of opposition with Dangote, collaborate and cooperate with him for the overall benefit of all Nigerians.
By the time they have start rolling out yesterday I think on the 2nd or on the 3rd they have started producing PMS and if they reach an agreement a kind of MoU with Nigerian government or NNPC and then NNPC start sending down to him and selling to marketers internally therefore we expect prices to fall down and even if prices don’t fall down still Nigeria will greatly benefit from him it will revive the narrative it will be a game changer ,economy will strongly benefit from the operation of Dangote.
Africa Press – As the capacity of this refinery is beyond the consumption of Nigeria, what other African countries stand to benefit ?
Dr. Abubakar Gwandu: Of Course the capacity of the refinery and output of the refinery is beyond the consumption of Nigeria for Nigeria cannot even contain the total output so there is enough of surplus. The output is more than enough to meet the demand for petrol of Nigeria more than 100% and still export for the export will generate a lot of dollar for Nigeria. Like I said before all these will strengthen the economic position of Nigeria so Nigeria will be an exporter of refined petroleum product. Already he has started exporting gas, liquify natural gas, kerosene, oil and so many other oil related and very soon he will also start producing petrol chemical products which he will also export and use certain percentage for local consumption. The combination of all that will put Nigeria among the leading economies of the world.
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I really appreciate the effort of dangote and we are praying for his success.
As for the affordability of rice is possible within months to come if all the three tiers of government can agreed with my suggestions.
A bag of 50kg rice can be sold at 20k only