By Abba Hamisu Sani
Africa-Press – Nigeria. The present Nigerian political landscape is characterized by many challenges, ranging from alleged election malpractice to a lack of internal political party democracy, which produces undeserving candidates for executive and legislative positions at the federal, state, and local government levels.
This situation has also affected the judicial system, an arm of government meant to mediate between the other branches.
Nigerian politics has remained a subject of criticism by many political observers since 1999 when the country returned to a democratic system of governance.
Recent Political Instability and Election Irregularities
Political activities in Nigeria have proven to be unstable due to the behavior of the majority of practitioners.
Many politicians consider politics as a means of getting rich quickly at the detriment of poor citizens. However, the masses have also contributed to this situation as they often fail to vote objectively. Their decisions are mostly influenced by religion, tribalism, or regionalism.
For instance, during the 2023 elections, religion and regionalism played a significant role. These factors were considered major contributors to the emergence of Bola Ahmed Tinubu as the President of Nigeria.
He used the strategy of a Muslim-Muslim ticket, with himself, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, from the South-Western Muslim community, and Kashim Shettima from the North-East Muslim community.
Ethnic considerations were also evident, as Peter Obi, the candidate of the Labour Party from the South-East, emerged as the third-place runner-up.
Statistics indicated that Obi’s votes largely came from the South-East, a region dominated by the Igbo ethnic group, which is Obi’s tribe, and some minority Christians from the North.
Nigerian Politics is Characterized by Election Malpractice
During elections, politicians apply different tactics to manipulate the process, such as vote-buying, rigging, thuggery, and other forms of violence.
They also connive with security agents to alter election results.
Rigging Allegations Against the 2023 Elections
Dr. Sam Amadi, the Director of the Abuja School of Social and Political Thoughts, claimed that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) deliberately compromised the 2023 general elections.
Amadi, who was a guest speaker at the second edition of the New National Star Breakfast Meeting held at Top Rank Galaxy, Abuja, with the topic: “2023 General Election: A Post-Mortem,” lamented that the electoral umpire was provided with all it needed to conduct a transparent election.
He said that despite early warnings and red flags raised by civil society organizations, INEC continued to reassure Nigerians that it would conduct the most credible election in the country’s history, only to switch off its server when it mattered most.
Dr. Amadi lamented that the electoral umpire seemed to have abdicated its responsibility to the judiciary, adding that elections should require less judicial intervention since it is the people who are supposed to elect their leaders through ballots, not through judicial pronouncements.
INEC Failed Nigerians at Both State and Federal Levels
Dr. Amadi stated that INEC has destroyed the safeguards of the elections. He argued that INEC had the capacity to improve its performance by 80% but deliberately chose to conduct a deeply flawed election.
“It is not technology, it is not a logistics problem; it is a deliberate plan to rig the election. The biggest weak link in this election is INEC, not the politicians. I kept warning that INEC might betray everybody. I had intelligence that INEC would ultimately fail, and indeed, INEC failed,” he said.
“In some states, the results on the IREV differ from the declared results, yet INEC still issued Certificates of Return,” he added.
The analyst also pointed out that in Nigeria, people seek political offices to amass wealth, which is why politicians employ all sorts of dangerous measures to grab power.
Economic and Political Instability Plus the Call for Military Takeover
Shortly after the 2023 elections, Nigeria experienced economic and political instability. The prices of basic commodities skyrocketed, making it difficult for the majority of Nigerians to afford food and transportation.
On May 29, 2023, President Tinubu announced the removal of fuel subsidies, which the immediate past administration of President Buhari had refused to remove.
This single decision, made by Tinubu during his inaugural speech, prompted many Nigerians to call for military intervention.
Subsequent military takeovers in neighboring West African nations such as Niger Republic, Mali, and Burkina Faso further aggravated the situation.
Moses Aluagba, a research professor at the Aminu Kano Centre for Democratic Studies and a lecturer in the Political Science Department at Bayero University, Kano, stated that many Nigerians may prefer military rule over democracy given the current crop of politicians managing the country’s affairs.
The political scientist added that the major infrastructural projects enjoyed by Nigerians today were initiated under military rule.
“Many social investments were established during military rule, while fewer developments have been initiated by politicians since democracy returned in 1999,” he stated.
Professor Moses urged Nigerian politicians to learn lessons from what happened in Niger Republic, Mali, and other African countries where bad leadership led to military takeovers.
The Stance of the Nigerian Military on the Current Government
Objectively, no one can predict the stance of the Nigerian military on Bola Tinubu’s government.
Since Nigeria’s return to democratic rule in 1999, it has been a common practice for elected presidents to appoint military heads they feel comfortable with to avoid possible threats.
Recently, there has been no visible sign of military intervention in Nigeria, despite what has happened in neighboring nations like Niger Republic, Mali, and Burkina Faso, where the military ousted democratically elected leaders.
Many political spectators expected that the Nigerian military would do the same due to the economic and security challenges plaguing the country.
At that point, many Nigerians hoped for military intervention.
Is Military Rule in Nigeria Better Than Civilian Administration?
Professor Moses Aluagba of the Aminu Kano Centre for Democratic Studies, Bayero University, Kano, argues that the form of democracy being practiced in Nigeria today tempts the military to take over, especially given the happenings in other West African nations, which are members of the regional economic bloc, ECOWAS.
In Niger Republic, Mali, and Burkina Faso, the military justified their takeovers by citing insecurity, economic woes, and political instability.
In Nigeria, the military appears comfortable with the status quo, as insecurity in the country provides them with an opportunity to siphon funds meant for arms and logistics to combat insurgencies nationwide.
The political analyst noted that, at this point, no one can truly interpret the Nigerian military’s “body language” regarding a possible move.
He added that most of the military coups in Nigeria were born out of circumstantial crises. Some observers believe that certain military personnel joined the armed forces with the intention of remedying civilian governance failures, as was the case in the 1960s.
Five Military Coups in Nigeria and Their Causes
Since gaining independence in 1960, Nigeria has experienced five military coups. Between 1960 and 1999, the country was mostly under military rule, with the exception of a short-lived return to democracy under the Second Republic from 1979 to 1983.
However, the most recent coup occurred in 1993, and there have been no significant attempts at military rule under the Fourth Republic, which restored multi-party democracy in 1999.
The main reasons cited by coup plotters—political and economic instability—have remained consistent from the first coup in 1966 to the last one in Nigeria.
Conclusion
To conclude, the possibility of military intervention in Nigeria is high, but no one can predict when or how it may happen.
Similar waves of military takeovers swept through many African countries in the 1960s, and the success of coups in one nation often emboldens the military in another.
Now, with successful coups in some West African countries like Niger Republic—Nigeria’s immediate neighbor—Mali, and Burkina Faso, coupled with Nigerians’ hope for better governance under any system, there are strong indicators that could lead to military intervention in Africa’s largest democracy, Nigeria.
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