Abba Hamisu Sani
Africa-Press – Nigeria. March 11th 2023 is slated by the Independent Electoral Commission as the date for the Gubernatorial and States House of Assembly elections in Nigeria after conducting a Presidential election on 25th February in which the ruling APC candidate Bola Tunibu emerged the winner.
Elections at States levels are considered more critical as governments at that level are more closer to the citizens than the Federal Government.
The Governorship elections will now take place in 28 out of Nigeria’s 36 states while new lawmakers will also be elected for the Houses of Assembly in the 36 states. As Eighteen Political Parties are to Participate in the election.
Governorship elections are not held this time in Anambra, Bayelsa, Edo, Ekiti, Imo, Kogi, Osun and Ondo, as polls to the offices of governors of the states .
Will the 11th March election be a reflection of 25 th February Presidential Poll؟
During the last Month Presidential election Nigerians exhibited unusual voting patterns in different states across the federation as Labour Party won states like Lagos which hitherto belong to APC and all the Southeast States which since 1999 were under PDP dominance.
The People’s Democratic Party, which is the main opposition Party, wins states like Katsina, the home state of president Buhari.
In Kano state also which President Buhari used to enjoy high patronage since he joined politics in 2003 but this time his candidate Bola Tinubu lost to New Nigeria People’s Party candidate Rabi’u Kwankwaso.
Going by the experience of the February Presidential poll the elections at state levels will be very tough.
What will be the fate of Opposition Parties during the Gubernatorial elections
Out of the 17 opposition parties that exist in Nigeria three are more powerful as indicated by the outcome of the 2023 presidential election.
PDP ,Labour Party and NNPP are the Political parties expected to play a vital role in the second phase of 2023 election which will produce governors and state house of Assembly members .
In states like Lagos and Kano the Political battle will be very tough as the ruling Party will experience more resistance from voters. The two States are considered to be very relevant in Nigerian Politics.
If the Labour Party wins Lagos State as during the Presidential election that will bring to an end the 24 years political dynasty established by Bola Tinubu who is now the Nigerian President elect.
In the same vein if NNPP succeeded in producing the next Governor of Kano state that would solidify the Position of Senator Kwankwaso as the political gladiator of the state with highest population in Nigeria.
Will voters turn out increase during the gubernatorial and state legislatures election؟
According to available statistics, the 2023 Presidential election witnessed the lowest voter turnout in Nigeria’s election since 1999.
The February Presidential poll seems to be the most expensive contest ahead of the election.
Independent National Electoral Commission data shows that 87.2 million Nigerians collected their Permanent Voter Cards and were eligible to vote but only 24.2 million people cast their votes. In effect, this means, for every ten eligible voters, less than 3 people determined who won the 2023 election, the lowest presidential election turnout Nigeria has recorded since independence.
Commenting on the development, different commentators described the low participation as astonishing and problematic.
While others attributed the situation with the economic hardship which makes it difficult for many voters to travel from one location to the other as a lot of people register in places different from where they reside.
Nigeria has a population of 220 million, based on Worldometer elaboration of the latest United Nations data.
There has been a consecutive decline in election turnout since 1999, although turnout increased from 52 per cent to 69 per cent between the 1999 and 2003 elections as data from the INEC shows. But after the 2003 presidential election, participation in subsequent elections has continued to decline, first to 57 percent in 2007, then to 54 percent in 2011, before dropping to 44 percent in 2015.
Political Analyst
This further plummet in the 2019 presidential election as only 35 percent of registered voters actually voted, Professor Kabiru Mato is a renowned Political analyst in Nigeria.He described the situation as unfortunate and called on Nigerians to revert the train by coming out in mass to vote for the gubernatorial candidates of their choice and Members of state Assemblies in their respective states.
The analysts commented on the voter apathy recently in an interview with Nigeria Television Authority (NTA).
The Political scientist described state elections as the most important poll as leaders at that level are more closer to the citizens compared to the Federal Government.
Kabiru Mato also stated that political parties are not helping matters as their engagement in voter education is low unlike political parties in the first and second republic.
Professor Mato urged Government agencies responsible for public enlightenment to do more in educating and informing Nigerians on the imperative of electoral participation.
He added that with the number of registered voters which is about nine hundred Million, Nigerians can make leaders of their wish particularly at state level.
” You complain about bad leadership and you refuse to go out for election ,that is the worst for you as citizen ,people should better be committed in making their leaders as election only take place after four years” Professor Kabiru Mato emphasized.
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