Abba Hamisu Sani
Africa-Press – Nigeria. Opinion polls on elections is one of the regular things in advanced Democracies. Opinion polls are conducted ahead of the elections to sample the electorate’s view on who they might vote for.
Sometimes in countries like the United States of America which is the number one Democracy, people can predict a winner days before going to polling stations due such opinion polls.
As preparations for the 2023 Presidential election in Nigeria are on top gear, an opinion Poll on who will be the winner of the February poll conducted by Nextier which is an Independent platform has generated heat in the political atmosphere.
Nextier SPD, is an African-based international development consulting firm. It said the outcome of the opinion Poll conducted shows the Labour Party leading with 37 percent followed by the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) with 27 percent and the All Progressives Congress (APC) with 24 percent.
According to the most recent Nextier Poll, Obi has the greatest net favorability among the leading presidential contenders, placing him ahead of his closest rivals, PDP’s Atiku Abubakar and APC’s Bola Tinubu.
The poll, released on Saturday, February 5th, 2023, is the second national face-to-face survey undertaken by Nextier SPD and shows that a significant percentage of registered voters, 72% have chosen their presidential candidate.
At the same time, among the major political parties, the Labour Party has the greatest net favorability.
According to the firm’s website, Nextier SPD, employs evidence-based research and policy to create and strengthen knowledge and skills for managing society.
“The enumerators conducted the polls in both urban and rural communities.The polls were conducted face-to-face and represented the age and gender demographics in each state of the Federation and the Federal Capital Territory. Only registered voters who have collected their Permanent Voters Cards were polled.” Nextier stated.
Reactions of APC and NNPP Presidential Candidates
The Presidential candidate of All Progressives Congress (APC), Bola Ahmed Tinubu, has protested the result of the presidential election poll conducted by Nextier which favored his Labour Party (LP) counterpart, Peter Obi, as the preferred choice of the electorate in the six states of South West.
The former Lagos State governor described the poll as ludicrous, farcical and a “wishful thinking without any basis in fact and reality.”
Tinubu who spoke through the director, Media and Publicity of the APC presidential campaign council, Bayo Onanuga, alleged that the pollster, Nextlier, was working for Obi.
In a statement issued on Sunday night a day after the release of the result Tinubu maintained that Nextier and its promoters are members of Obi’s campaign team.
The statement by Onanuga stated: “It is quite ludicrous that the Poll that projects a clean sweep of the SouthEast Region at over 90% of registered votes also puts Peter Obi ahead of APC Presidential candidate, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu in the six South West States including Lagos.
“Assuming without absolutely conceding that Peter Obi will enjoy home advantage in his part of the country, we then wonder why the pollsters at Nextier, if they have any modicum of respect for the intellect of Nigerians, thought the factors that will propel landslide victory for Obi in South east will not work for the APC candidate in his own South West base” He added In his reaction the New Nigeria Peoples Party Presidential candidate Engineer Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso described the poll as baseless and even considered it as a security threat.
He urged the presidency and the security agencies to put a stop to such predictions.
Kwankwaso added that if Nigerians could remember this kind of expectation and predictions created uprising in 2003 ,2007 and 2011 when Buhari was the presumed win of elections at that period.
Will opinion polls result reflect on the election outcome in Nigeria ?
Professor Moses T. Aluaigba is a research Professor at Mambayya House, Aminu Kano Centre for Democratic Studies, Bayero University, Kano, Nigeria. He said opinion polls prior to elections have become a major activity in most countries now especially in political systems that are very developed were there is high level of education
low level of poverty and have people that know their rights and the right persons to vote for.
The Political scientists stated that Public opinion on polls before elections normally reflect the desire of the electorates but he added that in the case of Nigeria “you know our situation as a developing democracy in a developing country not necessarily permit the polls to reflect the opinion of Nigerians because other factors come into play that usually affect people behavior on the day of election
For example, the issue of the use of money can easily change the voting behavior of a very good number of voters in Nigeria because of the nature of our economy , the majority of the people are poor so money can change opinion” The Professor said.
Another factor according the political scientist is the role of religious leaders ; Imams and pastors as usually known in Nigeria , they really influence the voters decision few hours to the voting through preaching tactics
He also expressed that the timing of the poll is another thing to consider as if the polls are conducted closer to elections it mostly reflects the election outcome in the advanced democracies unlike in Nigeria.
While talking on the criteria to be employed in conducting the poll the professor of political science said integrity should be the number one criteria and the process of the poll should be credible and transparent.
“Basically the poll should really represent the opinion of the voters,” professor Moses T. Alauigba stressed.
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