Africa-Press – South-Africa. After a tough week, the rand regained some of its losses as the dollar took a hit on Friday. Slowing US jobs growth data in July encouraged hopes of a soft economic landing.
The rand strengthened by almost 2% on Friday, from R18.74/$ to R18.41. However, the local currency is still down almost 5% over the past week.
This was due in part to the widely unexpected drop in Fitch’s credit rating on the US, which sparked risk aversion in the market, and has seen the US dollar strengthen on some safe haven inflows, says Investec chief economist Annabel Bishop.
But she also points out that the rand was trading at R17.16/$ just two weeks ago and has lost far more against the dollar than the greenback has gained against other currencies.
The rand is closely linked to commodity prices, which have fallen over recent weeks, says Bishop.
“Sentiment has been negatively impacted by weak economic data coming out from China, with a hoped-for economic stimulus package not yet announced, and the delay weighing on markets.”
On Friday, it was announced that the US economy added fewer jobs than expected last month, but solid wage gains and a decline in the unemployment rate to 3.5% pointed to continued tightness in labour market conditions.
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 187 000 jobs last month, the Labour Department’s survey of households showed; fewer than the 200 000 a Reuters survey of economists had forecast. May and June job growth numbers were revised lower, suggesting demand for labour was slowing amid the Fed’s hefty rate hikes.
But with 1.6 job openings for every unemployed person, the moderation in hiring could indicate companies are failing to find workers. The softer-than-expected jobs number halted this week’s surge in Treasury yields and stopped the dollar’s recent climb, said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York.
“There’s a short squeeze in the foreign currencies, a bit of a long-dollar liquidation encouraged by a sharp drop in interest rates,” he said, adding “the dollar’s upside correction is almost over.”
However, Chandler doubted the market’s view of a soft landing ahead of next week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), which he said could show the first year-over-year rise in inflation since June 2022.
The dollar index, a measure of the US currency against six peers, fell 0.537% after climbing on Thursday to 102.84, the highest since 7 July.
The trend in the labour market continues to move in the right direction, with two consecutive monthly prints after the revision for June now below 200 000, said Marvin Loh, senior global macro strategist at State Street in Boston.
“Like a lot of the data we’ve got of late, there are things for the bulls and there are things for the bears,” he said. Slowing jobs growth puts the economy closer to “that magical 100 000 to 120 000 per month creation number” that Fed Chair Jerome Powell would like to see, Loh said.
But “wages picked up. We’re now running at 4.4% average hourly earnings year over year. That’s still inconsistent with the Fed’s 2% goal”, he said. The euro edged up 0.69% to $1.102 and the yen strengthened 0.50% at 141.84 per dollar.
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