Africa-Press – South-Africa. The 2017 ANC elective conference was balanced on a knife’s edge. What the recent ANC Eastern Cape conference revealed is that the possibility exists that the 2022 conference could provide the same close contestation writes Kelvin Knowles.
The ninth elective conference of the Eastern Cape ANC concluded after much drama on Monday, with the incumbent provincial chairperson and Premier Oscar Mabuyane emerging victoriously. It was by no means an easy feat.
What the Eastern Cape conference provided was a dress rehearsal of what to expect at the ANC’s national elective conference in December. Moreover, the two distinct factions of President Cyril Ramaphosa and the Radical Economic Transformation (RET) brigade played out in full in the Eastern Cape conference.
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As was expected, the conference was characterised by delays, which have become part of the ANC’s election conference shenanigans. These delays included a dismissed court application which sort to exclude the Dr. R.W Rubusane and Chris Hani regions from participation because of unresolved membership manipulations. The Provincial Task Team’s Mlungisi Mvoko also denied Andile Lungisa an opportunity to address the gathering on Saturday night. All these undercurrents stem from the fierce rivalry between the two slates: The Mabuyane vs. the Madikizela slate.
ANC not used to being in opposition
What was at stake for both slates?
The ANC is still reeling from the hammering it took at the 2016 local government elections, which saw it losing support in major metropolitan areas. This trend continued in the 2021 local elections as well as the 2019 general elections.
The writing has been on the wall for the former liberation movement for some time. Predictions have been made that it fall below the 50% threshold in 2024, thereby ceding power to what would be a grand coalition at the national level.
The ANC is not used to being in opposition. What sustained it thus far was the sentimental vote, where the liberation movement is seen as the saviour that must be kept in power at all cost. Failure of which will see a reversal of the former apartheid status quo. As simplistic as this may seem, it is exactly this kind of fear that gets exploited by shrewd ANC politicians come elections.
For the Eastern Cape, which is a bastion of ANC support with the second-largest concentration of ANC supporters in the country, the region’s factional battles were always going to be fierce. Early indications were that former allies Oscar Mabuyane and Babalo Madikizela would somehow find common ground. This did not happen.
Weight behind Madikizela
The third protagonist, Mlibo Qoboshiyane, decided at the last minute on Saturday to throw his weight behind Madikizela. This meant an increase in the number of votes for Madikizela- which in turn meant that someone must be bumped from the Madikizela slate. In an election where positions mean everything for career politicians, the factional lines became entrenched. At this stage, Mabuyane must have been rattled because he had already secured support from the Chris Hani and Sarah Baartman regions.
There are many things that can jeopardise an election campaign. But nothing more so than those who you choose to be running partners on a slate. Moreover, the association of a campaign with a controversial figure such as Lungisa, who has previously been seen as an ally of the RET brigade and a staunch supporter of former President Zuma did more harm than good for the Madikizela slate.
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After his win, Mabuyane re-endorsed Cyril Ramaphosa for another term as president of the governing party. The Qobishiyane faction previously endorsed the candidature of Nkosazana Dlamini Zuma at the 2017 elective conference.
In the minds of ANC members, these groupings are portrayed as adversaries to the regeneration of the ANC. Challenging the Rampahosa faction without a clear candidate for the position of party president at the end-of-year elective conference is also indicative of the covetous aspirations of multiple contenders. And, there are those who have aspirations to be elected to the top 6 of the ANC. Here Gwede Mantashe and Mondli Gungubele who hail from the Eastern Cape had a vested interest in the outcome of the election – and the victory of Mabuyane.
Possibility of reprisal
What remains now would be to consolidate Mabuyane’s victory and try and unify the ANC. Regarding unification, this was a shortcoming Qobishiyane highlighted that Mabuyane had failed to do. A united Eastern Cape going to the elective conference bodes well for Ramaphosa.
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There is however a drawback too. The ANC prides itself on its democratic processes, but what is concerning is that after democratic expression, there is always the possibility of reprisal against those who have challenged the status quo. Even if it was going to be the case to deal with dissidents, this will be catastrophic. There is already the perception that the step aside rule might see Ramaphosa loyalists rethink their positions going forward.
The 2017 elective conference was balanced on a knife’s edge. The possibility exists that the 2022 conference could provide the same close contestation. With six months to go until the elective conference, a lot can happen. We will have to wait to see.
– Dr Kelvin Knowles is a UFS PhD graduate
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