Africa-Press – South-Africa. The expected decline in petrol prices next month has narrowed over the past week on the back of a slightly weaker rand and a small increase in the international price of oil.
Over the past five days, the rand has declined 1.47% relative to the US dollar, while oil has risen by nearly 1%.
The most recent data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) showed that petrol and diesel prices are still set for a decline in September.
While the expected reduction in the price of petrol has shrunk, diesel is still set for a significant reduction as supply constraints ease.
The expected changes in the price of various fuels in South Africa, as calculated by the CEF, can be seen below –
Petrol 93 – decline of 12 cents per litre
Petrol 95 – decline of 4 cents per litre
Diesel 0.05% – decline of 56 cents per litre
Diesel 0.005% – decline of 55 cents per litre
The expected declines are due to both weaker international oil prices and a stronger rand, with the currency set to have its strongest August on record since 2005.
This is despite it weakening in the past few days as investors wait for economic data from South Africa, which is expected to show an uptick in performance.
The rand is up 3% against the greenback this month, which is the best performance for August since 2005. And the country’s equity benchmark has clocked a gain of 3.4%, the most for the month since 2006.
Investors are increasingly turning to South African assets as the coalition government implements economic reforms, the fiscal outlook brightens, and the Reserve Bank keeps inflation low.
Strong prices for the precious metals and other raw materials that make up the bulk of South Africa’s exports have also bolstered the rand and the appeal of the country’s mining companies.
While other commodity prices have had a strong 2025, oil has been on the back foot, with increasing supply from key countries and an expected slowdown in global growth due to tariffs on trade.
The Organisation for Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has begun unwinding its production caps on several member countries, unleashing fresh supply into the market.
Oil is set for a monthly loss, with trading dominated by concerns about a looming glut and geopolitical tensions.
Oil lost ground in August due to worries that global supplies will run ahead of demand in the coming quarters, boosting stockpiles.
Investors are also focused on Ukraine and potential shifts in crude flows from Russia. If it is allowed to resupply global markets, the price of oil could be pushed down further.
Oil’s decline in August is the first monthly drop since April, when most commodities were hurt by a sharp escalation in Trump’s trade war and concerns that energy consumption would suffer.
The worries about a surplus, with the International Energy Agency forecasting a record glut, follow a campaign by OPEC to restore idled capacity and reclaim market share.
The graph below, courtesy of the CEF, shows the basic fuel price in South Africa for the past month.
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