Africa-Press – South-Africa. Old Mutual has warned that South Africans are being hit with an unseen or silent tax as a result of the shock to international oil prices from the conflict in the Middle East.
The insurer said these shocks have a meaningful impact on household disposable income, with elevated fuel prices eroding money that would otherwise be used to pay off debt or purchase basic necessities.
Old Mutual’s Head of Financial Education, John Manyike, said that global instability is quietly eroding household budgets in ways many consumers underestimate.
“South Africans are engaging in conversations about global tensions in a casual way, but what many don’t realise is that these events have a direct impact on their personal finances,” Manyike said.
“This is what we refer to as the unseen or silent tax.”
Manyike explained that this is largely due to South Africa being a relatively small economy that is highly open, making it vulnerable to external shocks.
While participation strengthens the country’s global standing, it also exposes consumers to the ripple effects of international disruptions, particularly in energy markets.
The government has tried to soften the blow on South Africans through a R3 cut to the General Fuel Levy, but this cushion is small and temporary.
“While the intervention provides short-term breathing room, it does not remove the underlying pressure,” Manyike said.
There is a real risk that the relief we see now could translate into higher inflation or interest rate pressure later when the levy is reinstated.”
Old Mutual Investment Group now projects 50 basis points of interest rate hikes in 2026, a reversal of its projected 75 basis points of cuts from the beginning of the year.
Rising transport costs will also feed into the prices of goods and services more broadly, making inflation entrenched and further eroding disposable income.
“However, it depends on the extent to which businesses absorb those costs or pass them on to consumers,” Old Mutual Wealth chief investment strategist Izak Odendaal said.
When the costs are passed on, it will tighten already-strained household budgets and reduce disposable income.
Of particular concern is that fertiliser supplies have also been interrupted by the war, which could put upward pressure on food prices.
Odendaal argued that the Reserve Bank can afford to be patient in assessing the situation, given that inflation was on target at 3% before the war, while its policy interest rate was due to fall from an elevated level.
Ultimately, it all depends on how long the conflict lasts, disrupting supplies and keeping energy prices elevated. It also depends on how the rand-dollar exchange rate responds.
Manyike urged South Africans to build or strengthen their emergency fund to ensure they can withstand a shock to their household budgets.
Apart from building up buffers, South Africans should eliminate unnecessary spending, postpone discretionary purchases, and avoid taking on debt in this environment.
Odendaal advised investors to avoid panic selling out of their investments or retirement savings, with markets performing much better than expected.
He also reminded investors that such events are temporary and that it is extremely difficult to time the market, with selling out of investments likely to result in investors missing out on returns in the future.
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