Africa-Press – South-Africa. The eventual imploding of the ANC will occur, and while it’s not really that important when that will happen, it is crucial to think about what it will mean for our country, writes Oscar van Heerden.
After a two year lull, my wife and I were thrilled to be back at the Franschhoek Literary Festival (FLF) this past weekend.
A recurrent theme that ran throughout the various interesting book reviews and talks was the future of our governing party, the ANC. Whether it be in the ‘Quo Vadis ANC’ offering ably facilitated by Adriaan Basson and where Ralph Mathekga and Qaanitah Hunter took turns in dissecting their respective books and the future of the ANC or the ‘Thabo Mbeki: A dream deferred’ session, on Mark Gevisser’s book where the topic of the future of the ANC again came up. So, in short, we were all talking about books, but there was this looming question about what a post-ANC South Africa would look like.
EXTRACT: Ralph Mathekga – ‘The ANC’s last decade’
I must, at this point, also indicate that the echo chamber was overbearing to say the least.
Many voices amplified the impending demise of the ANC and almost celebrated the fact that it would happen soonest. Some predicted this would happen as early as the very next elections, while others hesitated to say perhaps 2029.
I think we can all agree that the eventual imploding of the governing party will occur, and it’s not really that important as to when exactly it will happen, but it is crucial to think about what it will mean for our country.
No SA without the ANC
Gevisser reminded us, in the audience, that it was Thabo Mbeki that remarked at some point that if the ANC should fall, it goes without reason that the country will also then fall. In other words, the former statesman was trying to say that South Africa would not be able to exist without the ANC.
Poppycock, I hear most of you say. After all, Mathekga indicated to the same audience that when the ANC lost power in the three largest metros post the 2016 local government elections, nothing happened. In other words, the country continued as if that was nothing, so why think we will not be able to do without the ANC, he asked. This got me thinking, and led to me pondering over this question for some time.
In keeping with the discussion and narrative that the ANC will eventually fizzle out, I offer some points towards the ongoing debate and intellectual project and hope it will further enhance the conversation. I don’t think it will be generally accepted in the FLF echo chamber, but I know there will be many who will perhaps look at the following points soberly. I offer three considerations,
ANALYSIS: Roger Southall – Former SA President predicts end of ANC and history is on his side
Anyone who takes a keen interest in South African politics from colonialism to apartheid to our democratic era, will know that it is undisputed that the one phenomenon that remains overarching throughout our body politic, for centuries is racism. And therefore, any conversation about the future of our beloved country must take cognisance of this very fact. Any analysis that attempts to deny this reality of racism will fall far short in finding lasting solutions for our Mzansi.
On the first matter, let me just state that the ‘National Question’ as it gets referred to by the ANC types, meaning the race question in South Africa, always has and remains a matter that must be continuously managed.
Managing the race question
It started with the Mandela administration in the democratic era, where the late President decided to manage the race question through the sports of rugby. Mandela maintained the Bok emblem and opposed fierce fights within his own party over this. The compromises made during the negotiated settlement nowadays goes unnoticed and is taken as evident, but it all relates to managing the race question. Be it Oranje as a homeland of Afrikaners or the private property rights enshrined and so much more.
I can also remind us all of the pre-democratic era where the ANC also went all out to ensure that non-Africans also came into the fold and under the banner of non-racism.
During the Mbeki administration, the ANC never abused their parliamentary majority to amend the Constitution on issues such as land and other matters. This was another case of managing the race question yet again, in my opinion.
Under Cyril Ramaphosa, as soon as a contingent in the ANC advocated the attack on white monopoly capital and the Reserve Bank, another grouping in the very same ANC made strides to counter such moves. This again was because the race question must be managed and, in some cases, must be defended.
Expansive infrastructure
Secondly, for the longest time during both the apartheid era and the democratic era, organised labour was managed by the very same ANC. In the late eighties in order to bring the apartheid government to its knees organised labour was mobilised to effect the necessary blows.
Similarly, in the democratic era, it is the ANC that in most instances keeps organised labour at bay. Managing expectations and demands for higher salaries and also keeping the unions in check at almost every turn.
Pieter du Toit: The end of the ANC – How criminality, poverty, graft will kill off Ramaphosa’s party
Finally, the ANC is the only political party that has the extensive and expansive infrastructure and human resources to manage the entire government and state. There are state-owned enterprises, all 400 of them, embassies throughout the world, and international institutions, and so forth. The impending fall of the ANC must also take these matters into consideration.
The question thus is, do we have a political formation currently that can indeed manage these critical areas in our Mzansi? I am not advocating, therefore, that the ANC must not fall nor am I suggesting that we cannot do without the ANC, only that we take heed of some of these considerations and not get lost in our echo chamber in beautiful Franschhoek.
– Dr Oscar van Heerden is a scholar of International Relations (IR), where he focuses on International Political Economy, with an emphasis on Africa, and SADC in particular. He is currently the Deputy Vice Chancellor at the University of Fort Hare.
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