Africa-Press – South-Africa. South Africa is heading for another cliff, with the country’s gas supply expected to run out in as little as two years, says Business Leadership South Africa CEO, Busi Mavuso.
“Many industries rely on gas as an energy source, from glass making to beverages. The current main source of supply, two gas fields in Mozambique operated by Sasol, will not supply South African clients from mid-2026 since Sasol will fully utilise the remaining gas itself,” she said.
“As with electricity, there have been warnings for some time that this was coming. But through a combination of policy inaction and an inability to commit to the large-scale investment needed to create alternative infrastructure, we now face an almost inevitable supply interruption.”
Mavuso said that South Africa can avoid the worst of the crisis, but only if the government takes swift action – and allows businesses to partner with them.
But even in the best-case scenario, the country will suffer at least a year-long gap.
“It takes massive investment to develop new sources of gas and infrastructure to get it to where it is needed, and as it stands, the best options still envisage a 12-18 month gap between the end of Sasol’s supply and any new supply coming on stream,” she said.
Mavuso’s warnings echo those of Jaco Human, executive officer of the Industrial Gas Users Association of South Africa (IGUA-SA), who raised the alarm this past week about the situation.
Human also noted that the problem is not new, but has not received the necessary attention from the government. The result is that the impact of the crisis is now real – and South Africa effectively sits with a new ‘day-zero’ for gas.
Mavuso said there are several potential sources of gas that could help mitigate the coming cliff – including major developments in Namibia and Mozambique, and the Brulpadda and Luiperd prospects off the Cape Coast.
However, she said that South Africa has not even begun the investment needed in infrastructure for these sources of supply to be able to reach Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal where most users are.
“Talks on developing Brulpadda and Luiperd have been stuck for some time over whether Petro SA will be an anchor consumer. PetroSA’s Mossgas refinery has been sitting idle for four years since its last gas supply source was exhausted.”
“For TotalEnergies to commit to the huge investment needed to bring those resources on stream, it needs to secure agreements with large-scale buyers. Even if it does, it will take until 2030 for the project to start supplying gas,” she said.
The business lead said that South Africa needs a massive coordination effort to deal with the coming drop.
“Potential users of gas, both public and private sector, from industry to electricity production, need to form agreements with potential suppliers and logistics providers to allow the investment to happen.
“Most important, though, is the role of government in creating an enabling environment for the necessary licensing, particularly the Petroleum Agency of South Africa and the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy,” she said.
“By coordinating the right expertise, political will and focus on solutions, we can make progress. We cannot afford to waste another day.”
source:businesstech
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