Jevans Nyabiage
Africa-Press – South-Sudan. Frictions with US could hit demand for commodities and prompt Beijing to revise outward investment strategy, according to Afreximbank
The US tariff policy could deal a blow to African exports, and experts warned that a prolonged US-China trade war would devastate the continent if China’s economy were to stumble.
The United States runs its largest trade deficits with Africa’s top commodity exporters – South Africa, Nigeria, Algeria and Angola – as it is heavily reliant on their precious metals, oil and platinum, according to Renaissance Capital Africa. But it said US-Africa trade remained small – last year the continent accounted for US$39 billion of American imports, or just over a month’s worth of US trade with Mexico or Canada. South Africa and Nigeria account for over half of those imports.
Meanwhile, Lesotho, Madagascar, Botswana, Angola and South Africa have been hardest hit in sub-Saharan Africa by Donald Trump’s “reciprocal” tariffs that range from 10 per cent to 50 per cent.
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In an abrupt retreat, Trump announced early on Thursday he would pause the “reciprocal tariffs” for 90 days for most countries, but hit China harder with additional tariffs to a cumulative rate of 145 per cent this year as the trade war continued to escalate.
Kai Xue, a Beijing-based corporate lawyer who advises on foreign direct investment and cross-border financing, said resource-rich South Africa and a few countries that have developed clothing manufacturing industries under the US African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) – such as Kenya, Ethiopia, Mauritius and Lesotho – could be seriously affected.
“South Africa, with a diverse set of exports amounting to around US$8 billion annually to the US, is likely to be hammered if the tariffs are not rescinded,” Xue said.
South Africa – which was hit with a 30 per cent US tariff – could see a moderate impact on its citrus, car and minerals sectors, but the European Union and China remain larger partners. Officials plan to diversify exports to markets across Africa, as well as in Asia, Europe, the Middle East and the Americas, rather than retaliate.
In 2024, South Africa’s exports to the US were US$14.7 billion, while imports from the US were US$5.8 billion, according to the US trade representative. In the same year, China-South Africa trade reached US$52.5 billion, with South Africa’s trade surplus to China standing at US$8.83 billion, according to Chinese customs data.
Angola, which faces a 32 per cent oil tariff, will feel limited effects since China is its top buyer. But Kenya, Ethiopia and Mauritius are more vulnerable – there is a lack of easy market alternatives for Kenya’s textiles and flowers and Mauritius’ sugar. A sharp drop in US demand could be a significant blow for these sectors.
For other nations, alternative trade routes and strong regional partnerships will help cushion the impact, according to observers.
Overall, China is the continent’s largest trading partner after it surpassed the US in 2009. Two-way China-Africa trade reached US$292 billion in 2024, compared to less than US$80 billion in US-Africa trade the same year.
In just two decades, China has displaced the US as Africa’s leading trade partner. In 2003, only 18 African nations (35 per cent of the continent) traded more with China than the US. By 2023, that number had surged to 52 countries – or 97 per cent of Africa – as China solidified its role as a global trade powerhouse, according to Carnegie Africa programme director Zainab Usman.
The trend is expected to accelerate. Since December 2024, China has granted duty-free access to exports from 33 of Africa’s least developed countries, further deepening trade ties.
“Thus, with uncertainty about the future of the African Growth and Opportunity Act even as its September expiration looms, the US-Africa trade relationship is more tenuous than it has ever been in this business-as-usual scenario,” Usman said. By imposing tariffs, it effectively kills the Bill Clinton-era programme that has been in existence since 2000 and which has been extended multiple times.
Xue said duty-free access for imports from African countries created a more favourable image for China compared to the current US policy. He said for the average citizen in Africa, visible infrastructure development like roads and energy projects were more encouraging than export opportunities.
“Any favourable comparison for China may be less about the duty-free policy itself and more about the disorganised and harsh approach of the Trump administration towards the African countries most affected by these tariffs,” Xue said. “Like Lesotho, with its hard-earned textile industry that could soon disappear because of the 50 per cent reciprocal tariffs.”
African Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) said the US duties were likely to have a limited direct impact on Africa, but the deeper risk was how resilient China would be against the tariff war.
“The greater risk for Africa is the potential indirect effects of escalating the US-China trade tensions,” said Afreximbank group chief economist Dr Yemi Kale.
Afreximbank said in a research note that should these trade frictions contribute to a sustained slowdown in China’s economic growth, Africa could face serious headwinds.
China is the primary market for many of Africa’s commodity exports – including oil, copper, cobalt and agricultural goods. This means a dip in Chinese demand could translate into lower export revenues for key resource-dependent nations such as Angola, Nigeria, Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
In addition, a cooling Chinese economy could lead to a recalibration of Beijing’s outward investment strategy, including its commitments under the Belt and Road Initiative, Afreximbank researchers said.
The research note said African countries, many of which have relied on Chinese capital for critical infrastructure development, could face a contraction in external financing. This, in turn, would not only stall large-scale projects but could also heighten fiscal stress in already debt-laden economies.
Between 2000 and 2023, China committed some US$182.3 billion to African countries that went towards building ports, hydroelectric dams, highways and railways, according to data from Boston University’s Global Development Policy Centre.
The Afreximbank researchers said the secondary effects of the US tariffs – rather than their direct impact – deserved greater policy focus. Notably, the Trump administration excluded critical minerals like copper and cobalt from the tariffs, softening the blow for resource-rich nations.
The US is negotiating a minerals deal with the Democratic Republic of Congo, signalling continued interest in securing African resources. According to Xue, the exemptions for oil, gas and critical minerals were likely to prevent severe economic disruption across the continent.
“The Trump administration clearly has continued interest in securing access to critical minerals,” Xue added.
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