Africa-Press – South-Sudan. A report released this week by Small Arms Survey has warned of pre-election violence in Western Equatoria State over growing political tensions between Speaker Jemma Nunu and Governor Alfred Futuyo.
The report Titled: Jemma’s War: Political Strife in Western Equatoria State stated that state government is divided between the two political parties, with both sides building up a war chest in preparation for future conflict.
The situation report seen by Eye Radio pointed out that this political strife has inflamed tensions on the ground and the SPLM/A-IO and government forces have been patrolling independently in the state capital, Yambio.
According to Joshua Craze, the author of the report, both the SPLM and the opposition are building up financial warchests in anticipation of future conflict. With Juba unwilling to support the state administration, Futuyo is maximizing the revenue sources he can control.
The Small Arms Survey report says traders in Yambio market complain about high levels of taxation, while some civilians report that they have moved out of SPLM/A-IO-controlled areas because of the tax burden. The SPLM behaves similarly in areas under its control.
It added that the SPLM is also trying to weaken Futuyo militarily.
According to the situation report, in August 2023, deputy governor Gaaniko organized the defection of SPLA-IO Brigade 2 from Maridi; this defection could be as explosive as that of Nando in 2021, even if the brigade’s commanding officer, Christopher Gume, does not have Nando’s stature.
The report says tensions between the two parties have intensified in recent months.
It says at the end of August 2023, the popular TNLA member from Mundri, Richard Mullah, tabled a motion at the assembly calling for Futuyo’s removal.
The lawmaker accused Governor Futuyo of failing to pay wage arrears to the civil servants of the dissolved states of Amadi, Maridi, and Tambura.
The Governor initially refused a summons from Jemma Nunu to appear before the TNLA in mid-September.
He instead wrote a letter to Kiir on 31 August, asking him to remove Jemma Nunu, and accusing her of instigating an ethnic war in Western Equatoria.
On 19 September, Futuyo finally travelled to Juba and appeared before the TNLA to refute allegations he had misappropriated funds intended for state officials, and to demand salary arrears from the national government.
On 21 September, Futuyo returned to Yambio, but tensions in the state have not abated.
In his absence, conflict arose over who should be the acting governor: Futuyo had nominated the SPLM-IO minister of cabinet affairs, but Gaaniko insisted he was in charge.
The report stated that both government forces and the SPLA-IO have since patrolled separately in Yambio, while Juba has ordered Futuyo’s troops to go back to their barracks in Maridi and leave the state capital.
It says tensions in Western Equatoria state are reaching similar levels to the period that immediately preceded the 2021 violence in Tambura.
The report also stated that politicians in Western Equatoria State are playing ethnicity cards, with the Avongara elite moving against Futuyo by casting him as an outsider.
It says the ethnicization of politics has set family members against each other and closed civic and political space in the state.
The Small Arms Survey warned that the proposed elections in 2024 threaten to be explosive because both Futuyo and Nunu see the current situation as a zero-sum contest.
The report stated it is unlikely that Western Equatoria state will get to the stage of holding elections before it is convulsed by violence.
It pointed out that the Azande Avongara elite around Speaker Nunu, the speaker of the national parliament is making a concerted effort to remove Governor Futuyo, while the governor is likewise moving against Nunu.
According to the Small Arms Survey, Futuyo, who is of Balanda and Zande heritage, has refashioned himself as a Balanda ethnonationalist.
Since the 2021 violence in Tambura County, politics in Western Equatoria has become increasingly ethnicized.
It says some members of the royal family also known as Avongara successfully transposed political tension between the SPLM/A and SPLM/A-IO onto ethnic tension between the Azande and Balanda.
The Small Arms Survey is a global Centre of excellence whose mandate is to generate impartial, evidence-based, and policy-relevant knowledge on all aspects of small arms and armed violence.
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