Africa-Press – Uganda. As the global conversation on fertility shifts from population numbers to personal rights, experts in Uganda are calling for increased investment in reproductive agency to address what is now being described as the “real fertility crisis.”
Uganda’s population currently stands at 45.9 million, according to data from the 2024 National Housing and Population Census.
The population is projected to grow to around 66 million by 2035, 78 million by 2045, and between 100 and 110 million by 2075, based on medium-fertility projections.
Yet despite this continued growth, a major shift is taking place—more Ugandans are either delaying starting families or choosing to have fewer children, largely due to economic pressures and limited reproductive agency.
The State of the World Population Report 2025, launched globally and in Uganda on July 1 under the theme “The Real Fertility Crisis: The Pursuit of Reproductive Agency in a Changing World,” highlights that fertility trends should no longer be viewed simply as demographic figures but as reflections of whether people are able to make informed and autonomous reproductive decisions.
Joseph Muvawala, executive director of the National Planning Authority (NPA), noted that while Uganda is still experiencing population growth, recent trends indicate a decline in fertility rates, especially in urban areas.
In the past, people had large families because they relied on land and farming. But today, in towns and cities, you need hard cash.
School fees, rent, food—it’s all expensive. That changes how people plan families.
Uganda’s average fertility rate has declined from 6.9 children per woman in 2000 to 5.2 in 2023, and is expected to continue dropping.
Muvawala warned that Uganda must proactively plan to avoid what he called the “2.1 child crisis”—a reference to the global replacement fertility rate required to maintain a stable population size.
“What we are witnessing globally is not just declining fertility—it’s a growing gap between what people want and what they’re able to do,” he said.
“This is why reproductive agency matters.”
The UNFPA report supports this view. Drawing from a global survey conducted in 14 countries representing over a third of the world’s population, it shows that people everywhere—men and women alike—are struggling to realise their reproductive goals.
Barriers include lack of access to reproductive healthcare, gender discrimination, financial insecurity, and pessimism about the future.
Dr Natalia Kanem, executive director of UNFPA, emphasised that “the real fertility crisis is not overpopulation or underpopulation—it’s that too many people still can’t make decisions about their own reproductive lives.”
She added: “One in ten women globally cannot decide whether to use contraception. One in four cannot say no to sex. And one in four still can’t make decisions about their own healthcare. That’s the crisis.”
In Uganda’s urban areas, many young couples say they desire more children but cannot afford them.
The rising cost of education, healthcare, and daily living—especially for families reliant on hard-earned income rather than subsistence farming—is forcing a rethink of traditional family norms.
The report argues for a rights-based, people-centred approach to population policy—one that shifts away from alarmism about population size and focuses instead on creating enabling environments for individuals to make empowered choices.
This includes investments in sexual and reproductive health services, universal education, childcare support, economic security, and gender equality.
Muvawala commended Uganda’s shift towards community-level development through initiatives such as the Parish Development Model (PDM), which brings services closer to the people.
He also stressed the need to keep children in school until at least age 16 and promote competence-based education to prepare youth for decent jobs and stable incomes.
“We need to build an ecosystem that supports people’s choices—not pressure them to have more or fewer children based on economic or political agendas,” Muvawala said.
As Uganda joins the global community in commemorating World Population Day on July 11, the message from this year’s report is unmistakable: the future of population and development depends not on controlling numbers but on expanding freedoms—especially the freedom to choose.
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