By Faridah N Kulumba
Africa-Press – Uganda. The current United States study conducted by the Fragile State Index (FSI) listed Uganda among the countries whose stability is considered fragile. And the third East African country to be on the top list.
Ranking
This year’s FSI research was published by the Fund for Peace (FFP), a Washington-based non-government organization (NGO). The index list the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Burundi, Eritrea, Ethiopia, and Zimbabwe along with Uganda among the fragile states. Taken together, Africa contributes 14 of the 19 fragile countries as per the index.
The basis
The FSI annual ranking of 179 countries is based on the pressures that contribute to their stability. showed that Uganda is among 19 countries whose stability is labeled fragile.
According to FSI, there are several factors that are attributed to a fragile state whose central governments are so weak or ineffective that n that it has little practical control over much territory, non-provision of public services, widespread corruption and criminality, refugees, and involuntary movement of populations and sharp economic decline.
How a country is assessed
Scores for every country are arrived at based on an assessment of their standing in 12 key political, social, and economic indicators and more than 100 sub-indicators.
Major indicators- The major indicators in which the fragility and level of stability are measured include security, factionalism among the elite, group grievances in the societies, economic decline, uneven economic decline, uneven economic development, and extent of human flight and brain drain.
*Other key indicators-* These include the legitimacy of the state, provision of public and social services, human rights and the rule of law, demographic indicators, pressures caused by the presence of refugees and internally displaced persons, and influence of external players in matters of the state. Standings in those key indicators are arrived at based on a system that assesses the performance of each country on a scale of one to 10.
Factionalism- Also taken into consideration while conducting the assessment is evidence of factionalism and fragmentation of state institutions along ethnic or religious lines or the absence of leadership that is widely accepted as representing the entire citizenry.
This takes into consideration the credibility of electoral processes. It also factors in issues such as whether political reconciliation has been initiated and whether there are strong feelings of national identity or nationalism.
Interpretation
The FSI report explained that a higher score (with a maximum of 120) indicates a weaker, more vulnerable, more fragile situation in the country whereas the lower the score, the better, Therefore, a reduced score indicates an improvement and greater relative stability, just as a higher score indicates greater instability.
How Uganda scored security wise
The new FSI research showed that Uganda scored 8.9 points out of 10 in the areas of security and cohesiveness. The assessment took into consideration factors such as whether there are threats posed by, among others things, terrorism attacks in form of bombings and attacks.
Whereas the report does not make mention of any specific attacks, it is worth noting that Uganda’s capital Kampala was hit by a triple suicide bombing that killed seven people and others injured last year in November. These attacks were blamed on rebels of the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) based in DR Congo.
Rebel hunting- In November last year under a separate bilateral arrangement to help hunt down the ADF. Uganda and DR Congo launched a joint operation against the ADF an armed group allied with Islamic State.
Trust in the security sector- The security indicator also takes into consideration factors such as the citizens’ trust in the security apparatus and whether the military, police, and other security organizations are not involved in terrorizing the opposition politicians and sections of the citizenry that are sympathetic.
Intelligence units– The FSI also conducted research on whether a deep state consists of secret intelligence units or other irregular security outfits that serve the interests of political leaders or cliques.
In February this year, the United States issued a statement in Kampala, citing “recurring credible accounts” of forced disappearance and torture by the security forces which reflect a bad image to the government. Also, during this month the United Nations issued a report pinning the Ugandan government on human rights abuses.
Other indicators examined
Among other indicators that were examined include whether there are divisions based on social or political characteristics, an area in which Uganda scored 7.9 out of 10, the economic decline indicator, which looked at among others income per capita, unemployment, inflation, productivity, debt, poverty levels, or business failure. Uganda scored 6.4 out of 10 in that indicator.
Also taken into consideration was the issue of uneven economic development where Uganda scored 7.4 out of 10; the impact of human flight and brain drain on the economy where Uganda scored 6.2 out of 10, state legitimacy, which looks at the population’s level of confidence in state institutions where the country scored 8.5 out of 10 points.
Uganda rubbished the report
Uganda’s State Minister for Foreign Affairs Henry Okello Oryem dismissed the US study that focussed on addressing issues of violent conflict, state fragility, security, and human rights by describing its contents as contradictory.
According to Mr. Oryem if Uganda is a fragile state as the report claim, what will FSI research call the situation in the countries like South Sudan, Sudan, and in DR Congo and Burundi where there are civil wars?
He added that if there is instability in Uganda, the country would not attract the highest number of refugees who are flocking in if the country is fragile and falling apart.
For More News And Analysis About Uganda Follow Africa-Press
