By Julius Peter Ochen
Africa-Press – Uganda. The record-low voter turnout in the recently concluded Kawempe North by-election is a cause for concern among politically engaged observers. According to the Electoral Commission, Kawempe North had approximately 200,000 registered voters, but only 28,059 turned up on polling day—a mere 14%. With credible allegations of vote rigging, the actual turnout could be even lower.
This trend is not new in Uganda’s by-elections. In the Omoro County by-election of May 2022, only 17,454 voters participated out of 38,638, representing a 45.2% turnout. The Oyam North by-election of July 2023 saw a turnout of 35.2%, while the Dokolo District by-election of March 2024 registered 49.3%.
However, low voter turnout is not limited to by-elections. Electoral Commission data shows that since 2001, Ugandan voters have increasingly abstained from exercising their right to vote. In the 2021 presidential election, only 11 million out of 18 million registered voters participated, representing a 57% turnout. The 2016 presidential election recorded a 63% turnout, while 2011 and 2006 had turnouts of 59.9% and 69.19%, respectively.
The government spends billions of shillings organizing elections based on the number of registered voters. In the 2021 general elections, more than Shs 700 billion was spent on the electoral process for 18,103,603 registered voters.
Similarly, in 2016, over Shs 400 billion was allocated for 15,277,198 registered voters. With the 2026 elections approaching, costs could rise into the trillions. If the government acknowledges that only 60% of registered voters will participate, it could save the country around Shs 300 billion in the upcoming financial year.
Governments, especially revolutionary ones like President Museveni’s, have the capacity to enforce policies that could compel citizens to vote. One possible measure could involve removing inactive voters from the register if they fail to participate in elections over a decade, potentially affecting their access to national identification cards and related services.
It is intriguing to consider what would happen if all 22 million registered voters turned up for the 2026 general elections.
Demographic analysis of voting patterns over the past two decades suggests that urban populations, now exceeding 7 million voters, are more liberal, politically aware, and value personal freedoms. They are less susceptible to campaign promises and are more informed about governance and its impact on their lives.
However, only 50% of urban voters consistently turn up to vote. For example, in the 2021 presidential election, Gulu City had the lowest voter turnout at 33%, followed by Kampala, while Arua and Jinja cities registered 45%.
Further demographic studies indicate that young people aged 15-25 are less politically aligned and often vote based on excitement rather than policy considerations. Factors such as a candidate’s appearance or a catchy campaign song can influence their decision. In 2026, this age group will account for approximately 7,310,386 registered voters, with a turnout rate between 70% and 85%. The key question remains: which candidate is best positioned to appeal to this demographic?
According to Population Politics, the most politically active voters in Uganda are aged 26-60. They understand the role of politics in shaping society and value personal liberties, security, and economic stability.
However, they are also the most vulnerable to political manipulation due to economic and social pressures. This group comprises over 11 million voters, with a turnout of about 55%. If effectively mobilized, their collective political choice could significantly shape Uganda’s leadership.
The final and most interesting demographic consists of voters aged 60 and above. Having witnessed various political transitions, they are largely disillusioned with electoral promises.
They tend to vote only if a relative is on the ballot, if polling stations are nearby, or if transport is provided. Their overall turnout is below 25%, and they account for about 2.6 million registered voters. Politicians often overlook this group, but could policies be introduced to encourage their participation?
Ultimately, it is up to political parties and policymakers to explore strategies that address voter apathy and engage different demographics more effectively.
The author is a public policy pundit with an interest in politics.
Source: Nilepost News
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