Africa-Press – Uganda. Uganda under President Yoweri Museveni is a monumental contradiction—only comparable to Ethiopia under the late Meles Zenawi. In their obituary of Meles titled “Our man in Africa,” my favourite British newspaper, The Telegraph, posed a piercing dilemma:
“Here, in a nutshell, is the dilemma that so often confronts the West: at what point do strong leaders, whether in Ethiopia or nearby Uganda and Rwanda, become simply strongmen? Do we laud Mr Meles for helping to contain al-Shabaab, the Islamist militia, thus bringing the seeds of stability to Somalia?…
“Economically, the result for Ethiopia was one of Africa’s great success stories – but those paying such glowing tribute cannot ignore the price at which growth came.”
Back to Uganda. On the one hand, it is so “normal” that a deluge of desperate refugees pours in from across the region—seeking protection and economic opportunities.
On the other, “Dr” Uganda is the one keeping several African countries artificially alive through the UPDF life-support machine—in DR Congo, South Sudan, Somalia, the Central African Republic, and Equatorial Guinea.
And yet, Uganda is so abnormal that, unlike its neighbours Kenya and Tanzania—each having democratically changed presidents at least three times—Uganda is still stuck with Gen Yoweri Museveni, who seized power by force in 1986.
To put that into context, nearly 70% of Uganda’s 48 million citizens were not yet born or had not celebrated their fifth birthday when Museveni took office.
Speaking of birthdays, Col Dr Kizza Besigye—the only unrecognised bush war hero—will mark his 69th birthday on Tuesday, 22 April 2025.
Wishing him a “Happy 69th Birthday” would be a cruel joke. He will spend the day alone, caged in a prison cell—the same one where he spent Christmas 2024, New Year 2025, and the recent Easter holidays.
Kizza Besigye is a victim of the accident of birthplace.
Had he been born in Kenya or Tanzania, he would probably be a venerated former president, sent on regional peace missions alongside peers such as Uhuru Kenyatta and Jakaya Kikwete.
According to Besigye himself, he won both the 2006 and 2011 presidential elections. Two consecutive Commonwealth observer reports seem to support this claim.
The 2006 report observed:
“The environment in which the elections were held had a number of negative features which meant that the candidates were not competing on a level playing field: the failure to ensure a clear distinction between the ruling party and the State, the use of public resources to provide an advantage to the ruling party, the lack of balance in media coverage (especially on the part of the State-owned media), the harassment of the main opposition Presidential candidate, the creation of a climate of apprehension amongst the public and opposition party supporters as a result of the use of the security forces, and the alleged use of financial and material inducements.”
The 2011 report stated:
“The main concern regarding the campaign, and indeed regarding the overall character of the election, was the lack of a level playing field, the use of money and abuse of incumbency in the process… The ruling party in Uganda is by far the largest and best-resourced party and following many years in power, elements of the state structure are synonymous with the party…
“Reports regarding the ‘commercialisation of politics’ by the distribution of vast amounts of money and gifts were most disturbing… EC and senior District officials are directly appointed by the President. This has raised questions about their ability to be independent.”
It is on the basis of these objective reports—not Besigye’s own words—that many open-minded observers believe he might have served as Uganda’s president from 2006 to 2016.
Even my then-Muhima girlfriend, a staunch NRM supporter and proud Maryhill High School alumna—let’s call her “Mama Teresa’s daughter” from Ibanda—believed that KB had won in 2006.
But realistically, could Dr Besigye have governed these ungovernable Ugandans without the same “stick and carrot” methods that have sustained Museveni for 39 years?
Refer to my 2016 piece in New Vision: “Has Museveni tamed the ungovernable Ugandans, or have the ungovernable Ugandans tamed Museveni—and the two are now in equilibrium?”
Former Northern Youth MP Oscar Omony recently reminded us of the price of politics in Uganda. Speaking to The Nile Post, he said:
“As an MP, you are like a one-man government. People expect you to finance burials, hospital bills, school fees—you name it… Even something as simple as wearing a new shirt can spark accusations that you’re misusing their money…
“Politics here is monetised. In western Uganda, it can take a billion shillings to win a parliamentary seat; in Acholi, it may be Shs200 million. Voters expect you to give them money upfront. If you don’t have it, you’re out.”
In this environment, even idealist “President” Besigye would either have lost the elections, been overthrown, or remained in power only by emulating Museveni—blurring the line between party and state, distributing money through schemes like PDM, gifting vehicles to pastors, or building monuments to ex-rebels.
The fates of Uganda’s former leaders are instructive. Those overthrown within 24 years before Museveni include Idi Amin and the Okellos—who wielded the stick but had no carrot; and Obote, Lule, and Binaisa—who had neither. Kizza Besigye would likely fall among the latter.
Anyone who, in 2006, sought to become president without a stick and carrot was either a dreamer or dangerously naïve. Such a person should return after half a century—by which time the presidency might not require those tools.
Meanwhile, let us bask in the organised chaos of Museveni’s Uganda—for no one knows what will follow when the master of stick-and-carrot politics is gone.
Dr Sam Akaki is a Ugandan citizen
Source: Nilepost News
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