Africa-Press – Uganda. Everyone within the ANC is jostling for their positions and power, and it seems the only way to do it is through factions, writes Oscar van Heerden.
Turbulent changes do not affect reality on a deeper level other than to cement the status quo. This is what Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr meant when he expressed this profound statement in 1849.
The ANC has desperately been trying to actively move away from factional politics since 2007, and yet, fails at every turn.
Regardless of the party’s best intentions and the various steps taken to curb this divisive culture, it seems the ordinary folk of the broad church called the ANC just won’t have any of it.
The numerous fractions going by very innovative names such as Taliban, Adiwele, Ankole and others persist to the chagrin of the leadership in the ANC.
Everyone is jostling for their positions and power, and it seems the only way to do it is through factions.
Former President Kgalema Motlanthe is trying his level best to ensure that the ANC moves away from these practices, but it is an uphill battle to say the least. And then just when you thought that President Ramaphosa is above these power plays, a list appeared claiming to be from the CR22 camp. And boy, is it a list that immediately aroused all sorts of curiosity, for all the wrong reasons, I might add.
What were they thinking?
Looking at the list of proposed top six names, I could not but wonder what were the authors or caucus of the President thinking.
Here’s what I think of this counterproductive list. I say counterproductive because it’s not helping anyone to move forward. It’s not inclusive, and for some strange reason, it also does not take into consideration the power balance in the provinces. For example, by insisting on Gwede Manthase for chairperson of the ANC, you obviously alienate the Limpopo province, which has been asking for Stan Mathabatha to be considered for the position. This is the only demand the province is making, and may I add; it’s the second largest province by numbers (branches and membership) currently in the ANC.
Perhaps this was factored into their high-level thinking, but I think not.
Then there is Senzo Mchunu, for deputy president. I have nothing against the man, but at the cost of alienating large swaths of KwaZulu-Natal (the biggest province in the ANC in terms of branches and membership) – why?
Then there is the proposal of Fikile Mbalula for secretary general as opposed to Mdumiseni Ntuli.
So, at this rate, both the largest and second-largest provinces have now been irritated by the CR22 camp. Great going, guys. Not to mention poor Paul Mashatile who was hopeful for deputy president. He is also out according to the alleged CR22 list and with it, possibly ample support from Gauteng. Are you getting the maths thus far? These formulae suggest that without large numbers of voters from KZN, Limpopo and Gauteng, the CR22 group will not be triumphant come Nasrec 22.
For the longest time, I thought that a winning top six would be Mathabatha as Chair, Cyril Ramaphosa as President, Thandi Modise as deputy president, Ntuli as secretary-general (SG), Febe Potgieter as deputy secretary-general (DSG), and Oscar Mabuyane as Treasurer. This way, you accommodate all the big players in the country. It’s rather inclusive, and it does to a significant extent, speak to the end of factions.
Pedigree and experience
But then a good friend of mine while discussing these most important matters of State, put a rather interesting proposition to me, which got me thinking indeed. He said, stop for a moment and contemplate a scenario where both CR and Zweli Mkhize could not stand for the position of President, then what? I mean, let’s assume both Digital Vibes and Phala Phala disqualify them. Interesting, I said, and proceeded with the following proposal, which I can assure you will not see the light of day in our beloved ANC even when we talk endlessly of renewal and change.
Zamani Saul or Modise as President, Ayanda Dlodlo as deputy president, Parks Tau as SG, Potgieter as DSG, Ronald Lamola as treasurer and David Masondo as chairperson.
Exciting, wouldn’t you say? These are all individuals that have the pedigree and experiences. They measure extremely low on the corruption scale if at all. They are young and old and satisfy gender parity. I think with such a list the ANC would surprise itself in the 2024 general elections. But, as I stated above, it’s not going to happen. It will forever be my dream team and my wish.
I know that the year-end extravaganza will indeed be the elective conference of the ANC.
All eyes are on the ANC to see whether they will respect the electorate or insult them. Either way, the vote of confidence will certainly come in 2024.
My prediction for the fateful Nasrec 22 conference is that neither side will get their way and that the ‘coalition of the wounded’ meaning, Taliban, Adiwele, Ankole (broadly the RET forces reincarnated) realise that without Rampahosa as President, they won’t stand a chance in 2024. And that it would be counter-intuitive because they want power for two main reasons: to ensure that they don’t go to jail, and to continue raiding the public purse. After all, what is the point of all of this infighting if not for these two inextricable reasons?
So, let us hope that this list claiming to be from CR22 is, in fact, a false flag, with the real focus being on honourable, ethical and competent leaders for the top six of the ANC. A list that will bring the provinces together not apart. To counter Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr’s quote above, I say this to the ANC, “nothing is as constant as change”. And change you must, for the sake of the oppressed masses of our country.
Hope it seems, does run eternal.
– Dr Oscar van Heerden is a scholar of International Relations (IR), where he focuses on International Political Economy, with an emphasis on Africa, and SADC in particular
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