Africa-Press – Uganda. If my scholarly dad was still around, he would have called twenie-twenie an Annus Horribilis 2020.
He would not be referring to that part of a leopard’s anatomy that JPAM wanted to touch in 2016, although 2020 has been like that part. For what else can we call a year that started off with great promise, as Ugandans Olympics gold harvests, starting construction of oil pipeline and refinery; fanfare of electoral campaigns, all of which never were? Instead, the campaigns became bloody (in Jim’s voice), the Olympics are yet to be and the oil things keep delaying as the world’s car manufacturers race towards phasing out internal combustion engines in favour of electric vehicles. But worst of all, children have lost a whole academic year and we doubt the robustness of our system to merge or bridge two years into one.
Did I say worst of all? What about the deaths from Covid-19 that are just starting and have to get worse before slowing down? Well, the Government decided that the five-yearly elections are like the nine months of pregnancy — no postponement. Even if a woman is malnourished, sickly or has just lost her job or her husband (husband and job sometimes mean one and the same) she cannot postpone the delivery date until her situation is better. The baby has to come at nine months or unfortunately before.
The ‘before’ here would have been declaration of emergency. Now the best attitude you can adopt is take advice from us who have seen six such elections: be optimistic. Let us start by examining and accepting the GIVEN of this election; the prospects of the ruling party, National Resistance Movement (NRM).
Even if your favourite presidential candidate, John Katumba, wins the January 14 polls, the worst that can happen to NRM is to have a big majority in Parliament. Whether you like NRM or not, they already have a dozen unopposed seats and still counting, as more nominated candidates “see the light” and opt out to improve the ruling party candidates’ chances.
It is a fact that the NRM primaries are bigger than the national elections because while all positions are contested for in NRM polls, for the final January 14 poll, many places are only ‘contested’ by NRM as the opposition does not field candidates.
Moreover, the opposition opted for the ‘strategy’ of competing among themselves in the finals instead of agreeing on fielding on candidate per constituency. In a way, the opposition is working hard to ensure NRM keeps its dominance in Uganda’s eleventh Parliament.
The second GIVEN, therefore, is that Rebecca Kadaga shall be the Speaker of the next Parliament, unless she does not want the job anymore. So, Candidate Katumba had better start courting Kadaga very seriously if he does not want the NRM to use tyranny of numbers to impeach him as their first business when the next Parliament convenes.
That goes for any other candidate who will win the presidency if dear Katumba loses.
Clearly, Kadaga is the person to help the next president keep his or her job as more big politicians from any party get interested in State House and consider cutting deals with MPs to support impeachment.
In things of numbers, MPs have the power to impeach you even if the real reason is that they do not like your face too much.
There will be many independents in the next Parliament, of course.
But who does not know that most independents are NRM-leaning, after losing the party primaries. So, we know how they will be voting.
Then where does the optimism I am preaching come from? From the very nature of the NRM. It is not just the biggest party, but also the best organised. You can blame or credit this on NRM’s having been in charge of government and the state for donkey’s years. But you cannot deny its structural and operation superiority. And its members are not fools. They are not going to throw away the superiority of their tent and endanger their political future.
The common saying that NRM will perish after Museveni may not hold.
That was Uganda Peoples Congress’s (UPC) after Obote, but NRM should be smarter than UPC, if for no other reason than seeing the pathetic shape UPC is in. I do not think UPC even has a presidential candidate. Its presidents — I think they have several — are busy campaigning for their rivals, which is their right just like you have a right to insult yourself.
The NRM chief is reputed to like the proverb of the rat that lives long enough to chew the skin of the cat.
He is now savouring the UPC cat’s skin as the ‘peeti’s leaders grovel at his feet for jobs and favours.
Disassociate from criminals
Without beating about the bush, here is the one thing that NRM can do in 2021 to kick off the process of making Uganda a paradise: Disassociate from criminals! It is that simple that it can even be overlooked.
Nothing hinders government from delivering on its good plans like corruption does. And corruption is almost taken for granted that a radical decision to reject it would be the desired shock like an electric current to a patient who heart is stopping.
Remember a year ago when the President led an anti-corruption march across the city? How many ministers joined him? If for logistical or security reasons some could not, how many messages of solidarity did he get after the march? Did you see many ministers and NRM officials placing adverts in the media to support him the way they do whenever another mundane anniversary is marked? Did they even tweet free-of-charge to express solidarity with his cause? Or was it such an ordinary occurrence for the head of state to march across the city to protest against theft of public funds? It just means that there was no buy-in by his unimpressed fellow leaders.
When the scramble for Covid-19 relief cash came, Museveni had his chance to say what he thinks of them — “morally reprehensible”. Today, Lt Col Edith Nakalema is the public officials’ most unpopular official, for she can fight corruption unhindered by the structural red tape that corrupt officials have compromised over time.
So, in order not bear the baggage, the NRM MPs are likely to show zero tolerance to corruption, which could be eating up some 50% of the national budget, if they do not want their party to resemble the other peeti a decade from now, with its members of course also looking like the peeti members who didn’t jump ship.
Is disassociating from criminals a magic bullet? Yes, it is. And it has happened elsewhere. If Italy could say no to the Mafia and reduce their influence in government, then who says NRM cannot? Can you underrate the capacity of a movement that started with only 27 guns to fight and defeat a well-resourced government army that was backed by Tanzania Peoples Defence Forces, North Korean forces, the British Military Training Team and could commandeer all national resources in addition to borrowing? Don’t.
Those of us who have seen six or eight general elections — if we count the 1989 expansion of the National Resistance Council and the 1994 Constituent Assembly Elections — and reported on them all except the 1980 one — can tell you that 2021 is poised to be a landmark. Whoever wins it will have the chance to do a very simple job — removing the Mafia as a factor in the national economic affairs — and turn around Uganda’s fortunes.
The NRM, which is going to dominate Parliament, has the history of successful heroic struggles. If they could defeat a government when they were outlaws in a mere five years, why can’t they defeat fat, unconcealed criminals when they are in power, have the Law, Police, Courts and Prisons?
Public administration
After agreeing in principle and practice that criminals will not have room in the next government cycle, implementing the National Development Plan III will be a fact, not a myth.
Then, here, the big bad coronavirus becomes an ally. From the lockdown, Covid-19 taught us two big, irreversible lessons which we can only choose to forget if we have criminal intent as a government.
First, that many expenditures are not necessary. Second, that government business can be conducted without too much physical movement.
Many of us including the top leadership have been decrying the high cost of public administration.
We cried about the many districts and administrative units. Now we can say, create more districts if need be, as long as you manage government business according to the new normal.
Zoom has been used for a year now, nobody can present a silly budget “to install zoom” like someone 10 years ago cost the opening of a Facebook page at a few hundred million shillings.
Anyway, not to open wounds, we can now have a Parliament that does not do foreign benchmarking trips, public officials who do not require thousands of mpenkoni vehicles, no hotel-based seminars/workshops, trips, trips, trips.
With half the budget no longer being wasted, things like paying police and army a million shillings will cease sounding like statements of incitement because they will be very doable. After all, the said personnel are already getting an average of half a million, paying them a million isn’t starting from zero.
And the MPs’ big pay is caused by their weekly travel to and from the constituency. With Zoom, they can stay in the constituency forever and deliberate from there. They can be paid the president’s salary, which is a 10th of their current pay, the saving from the five hundred of them can pay the security personnel the million which to some pedestrians sounds like a lot of money.
For the immediate, they won’t have to be given some sh200m-sh300m for a car each, amounting to — please don’t fall off your chair — a sh150b.
So, 2021 can be the year of celebration if the NRM does just two things: Shun criminality and embrace technology.
Looking to 2021
In 2021, expect the majority NRM MPs to be looking at 2026 from day one. They will, therefore, try and do a good job. In the process, small you and small me stand to benefit.
And it is very easy to do a fantastic job of managing national affairs, if the leaders have a good reason to, especially a personal reason at that. And fixing Uganda’s problem is not rocket science.
Even Idi Amin could govern and leave the country with almost no debt and a fleet of 20-passenger planes from zero, having accumulated them in less than two years after Kenya grabbed all of East African Airways’ fleet.
The things both poor and elite Ugandans keep grumbling about can be fixed over the next five years and 2021 alone can be a year of celebration as the newly (re)mandated leaders (re)take office.
Proverbial cat
The NRM chief is reputed to like the proverb of the rat that lives long enough to chew the skin of the cat. He is now savouring the UPC cat’s skin as the ‘peeti’s leaders grovel at his feet for jobs and favours.
