By Faridah N Kulumba
Africa-Press – Uganda. Uganda and Kenya’s bilateral relations were established way back in the 1960s after the two countries got their independence from colonial rule. The two neighboring countries are partners in many areas, particularly in trade, infrastructure, security (military), Education, agriculture, and the energy sector.
However, in the past few years, the two African Great Lake countries have been having a cold trade war. This trade war between Uganda and Kenya is not only a threat to economic prosperity in the involved state but is also a threat to free trade in the East African Community (EAC).
Milk ban
The latest trade war between Uganda and Kenya started at the end of 2019 when President Uhuru Kenyatta’s government refused entry of milk from Uganda, and the two countries lost billions and billions of money. In 2018, Kenya began started complaining about Uganda’s cheap milk import in an effort to protect the local market. At first, Kenya raised its concern about Uganda’s milk production capacity but was debunked through a fact-finding mission in 2019. In the same year, Uganda’s exported dairy products were worth USD135.9 million, according to Ugandan government statistics.
Sugar and poultry ban
In July 2020, The government of Kenya instituted a ban on Ugandan sugar and revoked all sugar import permits, some of which were held by Uganda manufacturers and exporters opting to solve challenges facing the country’s sugar industry. The authority in Kenya explained that the influx of imports in their country had negatively impacted sales on Kenyan sugar producers, leaving them with huge unsold stocks.
Chicken carcasses, meat, and eggs ban
In February 2021, The government of Kenya went ahead and restricted the import of Ugandan eggs, chicks, and chickens saying that it was done to protect Kenyan farmers and enable them to recover from Covid-19 disruptions. But Kenya lifted the ban in December of the same year after bilateral talks were held between Agriculture ministers from the two countries.
Maize ban
In March 2021, Kenya’s Director General of Agriculture and Food Authority Kello Harsama suspended any exports of maize into Kenya from Uganda, claiming that the test results for maize imported from Uganda and Tanzania revealed high levels of mycotoxins that are consistently beyond safety limits. Uganda exports at least 80 percent of its maize to Kenya with the rest going to South Sudan and the Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).
Payback
Kenya’s ban on products from Uganda quickly escalated into a diplomatic row, Uganda retaliated by placing an embargo on some raw processed agricultural products coming from Kenya.
In December 2021, Ugandan authorities headed by Uganda People’s Defence Forces Fisheries Protection Unit (FPCU) and Uganda Revenue Authority (URA) impounded close to 20 tonnes of allegedly immature fish as goods in transit from Kenya to DR Congo. Uganda insisted that these tonnes of fish were from Uganda due to the fact that the tracks which were carrying them were registered in Uganda.
Effects
Unfortunately the back and forth between the two East African Community member states decreased trade volume within the region.
East African Community protocol
In accordance with the East African Community (EAC) common market protocol, so long as Uganda products are produced in the country, they are permitted to enter the Kenyan market without hindrance.
Will the two nation’s trade relations strengthen under Ruto’s administration
A government official Prince Ahmed Kateregga Musaazi in an interview with Africa-Press assured that Uganda and Kenya’s trade relationship will improve due to the fact that the newly Kenyan elected President William Ruto is a businessman and an investor in Uganda. He added that like President Uhuru, Mr. Ruto is a strong believer in regional integration.
“He has been doing business with Ugandans based at former Nile Grill, Uganda House as early as the late eighties immediately after NRM captured state power. He is involved in pharmaceutical industries, etc,” said Haji Kateregga Deputy Resident City Commissioner Masaka City.
However, Wakabi Micheal the editor of 256 Business News told Africa-Press that it is too early to tell because the trade policies of Kenyan governments are not determined by the government of the day but by very powerful business lobbies. On the other hand, Ruto just like Raila Odinga has significant business interests in Uganda.
He added that we might see attempts by Ruto to manage his internal constituency to make concessions to Uganda.
President of Uganda and Ruto’s relationship
Ruto shares a close relationship with the long-serving President of Uganda Yoweri Kaguta Museveni. He had made frequent visits to Uganda including in 2015 when he joined President Museveni at a campaign rally in Kapchorwa, attending the launch of the Kachorwa-Suam road that links to Kenya in 2018, and the private visit to State House Kampala in 2019, where Museveni and Ruto had three-hour private talks.
Another visit was supposed to take place at the beginning of August 2021, unfortunately, Ruto was blocked by immigration officials from flying to Uganda for a private meeting with President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni. According to Ruto’s allies, he aimed to borrow political lessons from Museveni’s National Resistance Movement party (NRM) which has been in power for more than 35 years.
Was Uganda behind Rito’s success?
In January this year, President Museveni vowed not to take sides in the Kenyan Presidential election that took place on 9th August. President Museveni was dispelling claims and rumors that Uganda’s ruling party NRM supported Ruto. President Museveni explained that the elections in Kenya or any other African country are matters of the people of that country.
Trade value
For many years Uganda is Kenya’s largest export destination. In 2020, Uganda took up the most significant fraction of Kenyan exports at 11.2 percent of total export value. Also, Kenya was the second-largest export market for Uganda in 2019, with the country’s goods destined for Kenya taking up 9.38 percent of the total export value.
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