Africa-Press – Zambia. The recent release of Zambia’s 2022 Census of Population and Housing Report by the Zambia Statistical Agency (ZAMSTATS) has ignited heated debate, particularly in political circles.
Among the most controversial reactions was that of the Chairperson of the Zambian Civil Service Commission, who is said to have publicly questioned the reported figures for Southern Province, suggesting they were inaccurate. This statement immediately drew criticism from opposition political parties, who interpreted it as a sign of political panic.
Their argument? That the Southern Province — a traditionally political stronghold of the ruling United Party for National Development (UPND)—was reported to have recorded a lower population than provinces where UPND does not enjoy strong support. According to the opposition, this census data signals the UPND’s imminent electoral defeat in 2026, as the regions where the party is weakest reportedly have larger populations.
However, this argument is based on a fundamental misunderstanding of electoral dynamics. While demographics are an important factor in shaping political landscapes, THERE IS NO DIRECT CORRELATION BETWEEN POPULATION INCREASE AND A PARTY’S CHANCES OF ELECTORAL SUCCESS. Several political, economic, and behavioural factors determine election outcomes — factors that go beyond mere numbers.
This article aims to de-mystify the fallacious reasoning that equates population distribution with election results and provide a nuanced perspective on the interplay between census data and electoral victory.
THE MYTH OF POPULATION SIZE AS A DETERMINANT OF ELECTION OUTCOMES
The assumption that a higher population in a given province translates to an automatic electoral advantage for a political party is deeply flawed for several reasons.
POPULATION DOES NOT EQUAL VOTER TURNOUT
Not everyone counted in a census is eligible to vote. Children, non-citizens, and disenfranchised individuals (such as those without National Registration Cards) form a significant portion of any population. Even among eligible voters, not all turn up on election day.
Voter turnout is influenced, among other factors, byvoter apathy (disinterest or disillusionment), election logistics (access to polling stations, voter registration etc.), weather conditions and other unforeseen circumstances.
For instance, a province with a large but politically indifferent population may contribute fewer votes than a smaller, politically engaged region.
SHIFTING VOTER BEHAVIOUR
Political allegiance is not static. A region that voted overwhelmingly for a particular party in one election may swing in a different direction due to policy dissatisfaction, economic hardship and /or the emergence of alternative political movements
Even within traditional strongholds, ruling parties lose support due to unfulfilled campaign promises, rising unemployment, or shifts in public sentiment. For instance, in the 2021 General Elections, the then ruling Patriotic Front’s (PF’s) Edgar Chagwa Lungu miserably lost the Presidential election to the UPND’s Hakainde Hichilema in the Northern Province, a province that had long been known to be predominantly PF owing to the ethnicity of its founding President.
ZAMBIA’S ELECTORAL SYSTEM: MORE THAN JUST POPULATION NUMBERS
Zambia operates under a Majoritarian Electoral System for Presidential Elections. This is where the winning candidate must receive more than fifty percent of the valid votes cast, meaning that winning an election is not about total population size but about securing the highest number of votes per constituency. A party could win a general election without necessarily winning the most populated provinces if it strategically secures majority votes across multiple regions, especially rural areas making up the vast majority of the country’s population combined.
For example, if the UPND wins narrow but consistent victories in multiple constituencies across Zambia, it could still outperform an opposition party that wins big margins in only a few of the ten provinces. What matters is the distribution of votes, not the raw population figures.
POLITICAL STRATEGY VS. CENSUS DATA: THE ROLE OF CAMPAIGNING AND POLICY DECISIONS
Political success is not dictated by census data but by a party’s ability to connect with voters through effective campaign strategies. Factors that determine election outcomes include:
(i) ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE: Voters are more likely to re-elect a ruling party if they feel economic conditions have improved.
(ii) LEADERSHIP PERCEPTION: Candidates with strong leadership appeal attract broader voter bases. The current Republican President seems to have this factor favouring him by a mile. Despite the challenges faced by the country, he remains popular in both stature and character, something none of his competitors, as well as vast majority of his Members of Parliament (MPs), can currently boast and this may be so leading up to the 2026 General Elections. Somewhat strange for a politician who had never seemed likable albeit in only three of the ten provinces of Zambia.
(iii) POLICY RELEVANCE: Parties that propose policies addressing unemployment, education, and healthcare have an advantage. Again here, the UPND’s Free Education Policy and the robust Constituency Development Fund (CDF) might negate its waning popularity on the economic front, especially, again among the country’s poor who might makeup about two-thirds of the eligible voters in both the rural and urban setups.
(iv) CAMPAIGN MOBILIZATION: Parties that effectively mobilize supporters, get out the vote, and address voter concerns often win elections.
Thus, even if the opposition were to rely on population figures alone as depicted in the 2022 Census of Population and Housing Summary Report, they would still need a compelling message and strategy to convert mere numbers into electoral victories.
CENSUS DATA CAN BE POLITICIZED BUT SHOULD NOT BE WEAPONIZED
It is not uncommon for political actors to question census results when they appear unfavourable. However, census data should not be weaponized to create baseless narratives of electoral doom or victory.
A credible census serves national planning, resource allocation, and policy-making, not as a tool for predicting elections. Disputing figures or falsely projecting victory simply because these figures do or do not align with political expectations risks eroding public confidence in national institutions.
CONCLUSION: ELECTORAL SUCCESS IS MULTI-FACETED
The opposition’s assertion that the UPND’s strongholds are shrinking, arising from the 2022 Census of Population and Housing Summary Report as given by ZAMSTATS last week Tuesday, and therefore an electoral defeat is inevitable is based on a simplistic and flawed understanding of politics. This is so because a close scrutiny of the same report shows that the ruling UPND is capable of outperforming the opposition at Presidential level, in an event of a General Election, in no fewer than seven provinces, two of which are not as sparsely populated in comparison to the top three densely populated provinces in the country among which only one may be regarded as the opposition’s lone traditional stronghold.
It is, thus, crucial to note that while demographic shifts may play a role in electoral outcomes, they do not dictate them. Electoral success is primarily, and to a larger extent, determined by:
✔ Voter turnout – Not just population size.
✔ Shifting voter behaviour – Allegiances are fluid.
✔ Strategic campaigning – Strong policies and leadership appeal matter.
✔ The electoral system – Winning is about constituency by constituency performance, not just total numbers.
Ultimately, census data provides a snapshot of population distribution but does not predict election results. Instead of fixating on population figures, political parties—both ruling and opposition—should focus on crafting policies, mobilizing voters, and addressing the real concerns of the electorate if they wish to secure victory in 2026.
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