Africa-Press – Zambia. For the past 26 years, the Jesuit Centre for Theological Reflection (JCTR) has provided Zambia with a vital tool for holding successive governments accountable for their promises of development and improved welfare––the Basic Needs and Nutrition Basket (BNNB).
The monthly publication of the BNNB serves as a real-time measure of whether policy pronouncements translate into tangible benefits for the poorest citizens.The BNNB, which was introduced in 1999, involves the collection of the cost of essential food and non-food items required for a family of five to maintain a decent standard of living in urban areas of Zambia.
The BNNB reflects the cost of an “ideal” basket (what families should spend) rather than actual expenditures. Prices are collected at the end of each month.
The prices are collected from multiple markets representing low, medium, and high-density areas in Lusaka and other urban centres such as Chipata, Choma, Kabwe, Kasama, Kitwe, Kitwe, Livingstone, Luanshya, Mazabuka and Solwezi, among others.
Zambian government officials, including President Hakainde Hichilema, have spoken glowingly of the many achievements of the administration, pointing to rising GDP figures, the hiring of teachers and nurses, the expanded constituency development fund, the temporarily strengthened Kwacha (boosted in part by mid-year tax obligations and a weak dollar), and so on.
However, behind these optimistic indicators lies a harsher reality: despite economic growth, ordinary Zambians continue to struggle under a cost of living crisis.
The data speaks clearly—while the economy expands, hardship deepens.
The BNNB for Lusaka, the capital, has surged from K8,430 in 2021 to K11,400 in June 2025, representing an increase of 40.7% (see figure 1). For Kitwe and Solwezi, two cities located the heart of Zambia’s mining industry, the BNNB increased respectively by 37% and 60.6% over the same period.
This increase exposes the stark disconnect between GDP growth and the lived experiences of the majority.
The sharp rise in the BNNB is consistent with official inflation numbers from the Zambia Statistics Agency. While 2022 saw inflation figures drop, compared to 2021 levels, Figure 2 reveals a concerning trend––food inflation has consistently outpaced general inflation, eroding purchasing power for essential household commodities as measured by the BNNB.
This highlights the deeply rooted cost of living crisis for the average Zambian household.The 2022 Labour Force Survey revealed that Zambia’s average monthly earnings1, which stood at K5,342, rose marginally to K5,369 in 2023—a mere 0.5% increase. Yet over the same period food inflation surged by 19.3% (see figure 2 above) and non-food inflation skyrocketed by 58.9%. (See figure 2 above.)
Meanwhile, official figures from the 2025 Budget Performance Report show GDP growth averaging 5.27% in 2023 and 3.92% in 2024.
Why has this growth failed to improve affordability for ordinary Zambians? Part of the explanation lies in the policies implemented by the new dawn government.
Poor policy execution in the agriculture sector, for example, helps explain why Zambia’s main staple has become prohibitively expensive for the average household.
As noted by Bernadette Mushinge and Grieve Chelwa, the government implemented a maize export policy at a time when “the country registered one of the biggest declines in maize production”, thus depleting the country’s reserves and pushing more Zambians into hunger. In addition, the removal of energy subsidies directly increased transport and food prices, disproportionately hurting low-income households. For example, between December 2021 and June 2025, fuel prices increased by 25%.
Electricity tariffs have also increased by 34% between 2023 and 2025. Both are the result of IMF-imposed austerity conditions.
The government has announced a “bumper harvest” for the most recent agricultural season (2024/2025), and it is too early to tell whether this will translate into some reduction in food prices and ultimately the cost of living.
One of the most important contributions of the BNNB is that it exposes the illusion of inclusive growth.
The average household has not seen the supposed benefits that GDP growth should deliver to everyday Zambians. Whatever growth has occurred has only led to widening inequalities. As the Bank of Zambia Annual Report shows, personal income tax as a percentage of GDP grew from 3.7% in 2023 to 3.9% in 2024, representing a 5.4% increase. While during the same period corporate income tax as a percentage of GDP fell from 3.2% in 2023 to 3.1% in 2024, equivalent to a 3% decline in corporate tax contribution to GDP.
The BNNB isn’t just a statistic—it’s a survival benchmark. When food inflation stays high while wages stagnate, meals are rationed and the general quality of life falls. The data proves that macroeconomic “stability” hasn’t translated into relief for the poor.
The BNNB underscores the need to align minimum wages with the BNNB threshold (current wages can’t even cover half of the basic needs!). In addition, there is a need to relook our policies on subsidies and agriculture to ensure that the least in our society are protected from economic shocks. GDP growth has very little meaning if living costs constantly outpace earnings.
As shown by BNNB, Zambia’s economic growth is for the privileged few and not the majority.
Ntazana Siame Kaulule is a Zambian economist and lawyer. His broad research interests are in land policy, debt, and development in Africa.
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