WALKING ON THIN ICE [The Delicate Economic Case of ZAMBIA]

Africa-Press – Zambia. The reason the Kwacha has posted marginal gains in value is NOT because Zambia’s economy is doing well. This is a problem. A laudable and sustainable currency appreciation should result from improved forex receipts emanating from economic performance, a healthy balance of payments supported by actual economic activities.

This is NOT the case for Zambia. Here are the reasons Zambia’s Kwacha has marginally appreciated: This then is the reason behind the Kwacha’s ‘bullish’ behaviour as economists like to mislead.

‘Bullish’ currency behaviour does NOT necessarily mean improved livelihoods of citizens. The Kwacha’s strength does NOT mean that Zambia’s trade in goods and services has either increased, expanded or widened [economic growth].

When the government is the one employing and NOT the private sector this is a very bad economic sign. This is socialism. The employment of about 40, 000 civil servants recently is NOT a reflection of the improved economic performance, it is merely political.

The UPND, a capitalist party, is now practising socialism. There is just no money to support and sustain this wage bill, which now stands at over 60 percent of GDP. .

If the USD 1.4 billion does not come and the debt servicing restarts, the FISCAL STATUS of Zambia will collapse. Zambia’s finance minister Situmbeko MUSOKOTWANE’s BP is already high. It will get worse.

Note that the private sector in Zambia has not grown over the last one year. It has actually shrunk and shed off over 100, 000 jobs. A net analysis of Zambia’s job market shows negative growth.

Zambia is currently in a state of STAGFLATION and its economy has contracted. The sale rate of goods and services has fallen, prices remain high in the face of low credit in the economy [business is slow], a precarious situation for out manufacturing industry.

Vitumbuwa siviyenda manje, as one female street vendor in Mandevu Compound, amake John, accurately captured the situation, her lips cracked for lack of vitamins and eyes bleary from despondency.

Further, the election of William RUTO as president of Kenya is NOT good for Zambia’s current government. RUTO represents nationalism, sovereignty and Pan-Africanism.

This threatens market/business confidence, and in turn, Western FDI, which Hakainde HICHILEMA’s government is relying upon for Zambia’s recovery and prosperity.

Zambia’s candidate, Raila ODINGA, a western stooge, lost and with that, western confidence in Zambia as an investment destination has plummeted and is now under review. We are economically walking on thin ice.

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