Africa-Press – Zimbabwe. Zimbabwean business leaders face uncertainty as the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) delays its annual Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) release.
Despite the MPS being overdue by two months, there are persistent rumours that its release will be further delayed until April, coinciding with the assumption of office by the new central bank governor, Dr John Mushayavanhu.
Consequently, businesses nationwide find themselves struggling to navigate the complexities of an unpredictable economic environment.
Vital decisions related to investment, hiring, and pricing remain dependent on uncertainties, including interest rate trends and the government’s stance on foreign exchange management.
Speaking to Business Weekly off record, an executive with a ZSE-listed entity said:
Without clarity on these issues, it’s difficult to make any long-term plans. Do we invest in expanding our stock? Do we hold off on expansion projects? It all feels like a gamble right now.
Economic analyst and veteran asset manager, Alfred Mthimkhulu, said most businesses and consumers are struggling to cope with the lack of clear economic direction. Said Mthimkhulu:
We are in a state of limbo. Clients are holding back on making decisions. It is affecting us meaning they too are really suffering. State of limbo…
People are concerned about a possible conversion with the new currency so only conservative decisions are being made.
The interplay between ZWL, USD and new currency is unknown so a contract may lead to exchange losses.
Walter Mandeya, an analyst at Trigrams Investment, warns that the absence of clear communication regarding the Monetary Policy Statement delay breeds uncertainty.
This could push financial markets to operate on the edges, potentially diverging from policymakers’ intentions and perpetuating a culture of inconsistent policies. He said:
A simple statement from the RBZ saying that the institution is in leadership transition and the incoming Governor has sought and been granted some delay in presenting the Monetary Policy Statement, would have gone a long way to keep the markets from going into unnecessary speculative if not panic mode.
Mandeya emphasized the need to stay informed about policy changes. While avoiding being caught off guard, Mandeya recognized that such situations can also lead to significant investment gains.
Another business executive who spoke to Business Weekly off the record said the delayed announcement of the MPS is of major concern. He said:
We were told the currency issues and their price distortionary impact would be resolved by the MPS, we are in some sort of limbo.
We are hoping the measures announced will mitigate some of the effects of the Finance Act.
In its inflation and currency developments update, the Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries (CZI) said the delay in the announcement of the MPS heightens uncertainty in an operating environment characterised by high inflation. It said:
The delay in the announcement of the 2024 MPS is not helping matters and adding uncertainty to the operating environment when inflation is already high encourages speculation as business tries to hedge against the unknown.
However, others such as Bongai Zamchiya, the President of Restaurant Operators Association of Zimbabwe, are not concerned by the delay. Said Zamchiya:
While fully cognisant of the fact that the time scales for the announcement of the MPS have been exceeded, as domestic investors who are fully vested in Zimbabwe, we understand the importance of having a holistic MPS and this direction being given by the Governor Designate in consultation with the Minister of Finance and Investment Promotion.
We understand the frustration that the delay is causing some but at the same time look forward to a Monetary Policy that addresses issues around pricing, export retention and enhancing an enabling environment for business to thrive and for the general upliftment of all Zimbabweans.
A Monetary Policy Statement outlines the central bank’s strategy and decisions related to managing the money supply, interest rates, and other monetary tools.
The objectives are to maintain stable prices by controlling inflation and supporting sustainable economic growth and employment.
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