Africa-Press – Zimbabwe. SOUTHERN Africa countries, including Zimbabwe, are expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall in the 2025-26 season, heightening the risk of flooding, particularly along major river systems and in areas vulnerable to cyclonic activity.
Zimbabwe experienced an historic El Niño-induced drought that compromised most of the crops in the 2023-24 farming season, leaving over five million citizens in urgent need of food aid.
For the 2025-26 rainy season, a weak and short La Niña is anticipated, typically associated with a cool and wet season.
According to a recent seasonal outlook provided by the World Food Programme (WFP), the season is also expected to bring heightened cyclonic activity, with Madagascar and Mozambique most exposed, though recent severe weather events in Zimbabwe, Malawi and Tanzania underscore wider vulnerability.
“This rainfall season (October 2025 to March 2026), most of southern Africa is expected to receive normal to above-normal rainfall.
“All countries in the region are at risk of flooding, especially along major rivers or due to cyclonic activity, in particular the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique and Zimbabwe.
“The season is forecast to experience average to above-average cyclonic activity. Madagascar and Mozambique are most vulnerable to tropical storms and cyclones, although Malawi, Zimbabwe and Tanzania have also experienced severe impacts in the recent past.”
WFP said while increased rainfall could result in destructive flooding and storm drain damage, it may also boost agricultural yields and hydroelectricity output in the region heavily dependent on rain-fed farming.
“La Niña typically brings above-average cereal production to most of the countries in southern Africa. There is a positive relationship between La Niña and cereal production because it usually brings more rainfall than El Niño and thus enhances and sustains soil moisture during the growing season,” the UN agency said.
“However, flooding can reduce food availability by waterlogging fields, damaging crops and eroding soil. It also undermines food security more broadly by displacing communities, disrupting markets, restricting access to livelihoods and destroying
infrastructure.
“The impacts are most severe in low-lying areas, especially along major rivers, near large lakes or in the path of tropical
systems.”
WFP said its Vulnerability Analysis Mapping unit was actively preparing for the 2025-26 rainy and cyclone season in southern Africa through a comprehensive approach that combined data preparedness, high-frequency monitoring and strategic
partnerships.
“These efforts aim to strengthen disaster risk intelligence and ensure timely, evidence-based decision-making during climate-related emergencies,” it said.
Meanwhile, the Meteorological Services Department assured the public that Zimbabwe is not presently under the impact of any cyclone, and encouraged citizens to monitor MSD’s official channels for updates.
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