Africa-Press – Zimbabwe. ZIMBABWE is likely to experience tropical cyclones in the 2025/26 rainfall season, with the Meteorological Services Department (MSD) calling on communities in flood-prone areas to heed warnings from the Department of Civil Protection (DCP).
According to the Famine Early Warning System Network (Fews Net), for the period between October 2025 and March 2026, a weak La Niña is expected and is likely to bring normal to above-normal rainfall across the country.
The weather patterns will increase the risk of flooding and waterlogging in areas that usually experience floods, with forecasts showing high chances of tropical cyclones in southern Africa.
The cyclones may mainly affect the eastern parts of Zimbabwe.
MSD also revealed that a delayed, erratic start with initial dry conditions in October-November is expected, while prospects will improve nationally from December onwards, though northern areas may dry out again later in the season.
“Relatedly, temperatures will be warmer than average in October and November, followed by a cooler December,” MSD said.
“Thus overall, for the first half of the season, the southern and western regions are anticipated to receive normal to above-normal rain; while the northernprovinces will have normal to below-normal rainfall.
MSD director Rebecca Manzou last Friday told NewsDay that while the exact intensity and distribution of the cyclones was yet to be determined, the department was anticipating their occurrence.
“As MSD, we will meet with the Sadc community for a meeting to be held next week, where they will do a forecasting for tropical cyclones,” Manzou said.
“So, after next week, we will be able to tell you what the meeting has come up with.
“From what we are seeing, though, the high temperatures, there are going to be a few cyclones, yet we do not know the intensity and distribution, but we are just anticipating that they will be there because of the energy present in the atmosphere.”
Manzou urged communities in flood-prone areas to heed warnings from the DCP.
“There are some flood-prone areas, most common, Muzarabani,” she said.
“From what happened during Cyclone Idai, people refused to move from their areas.
“If you are told to move to protected areas, do that because you cannot decide on your own, which area is safe.”
On the broader weather patterns, Manzou said the La Niña and El Niño phenomena did not always translate to predictable rainfall outcomes.
“For Zimbabwe, if it is La Niña, in most cases there will be a lot of rainfall, but years differ,” she said.
“La Niña does not equate too much rain and El Niño is not equal to drought.”
Meanwhile, the World Food Programme (WFP) has donated three Toyota Land Cruiser vehicles to MSD to strengthen its mobility and early warning capacity.
WFP deputy country director Billy Mwiinga said the donation was part of an on-going collaboration with MSD to build climate resilience.
“These vehicles are more than just a means of transport. They are a tangible investment in our continued and growing collaboration with MSD in strengthening climate services and early warning systems in Zimbabwe,” he said.
“Reliable mobility is essential for MSD teams to reach remote areas, collect data, monitor weather patterns and deliver timely and actionable information that help communities to prepare for climate-related shocks.”
Mwiinga added that accurate and timely weather information served as a foundation for early warning systems that protect livelihoods.
Manzou applauded WFP for the donation, recalling the challenges MSD faced when Cyclone Idai hit the country.
“For MSD, there came a time when we did not have vehicles specifically during Tropical Cyclone Idai,” she said.
“For us to hear that we are getting three vehicles is like Christmas has come very early.”
The MSD boss added that the vehicles would assist in reaching vulnerable communities, maintaining automatic weather stations and strengthening early warning systems.
“These vehicles will be very instrumental in conducting field work, including weather station visits, especially those remote areas and the maintenance of equipment,” Manzou said.
When Cyclone Idai swept through Malawi, Mozambique and Zimbabwe, it pummelled the eastern parts of the country and caused serious damage to Chimanimani district in Manicaland province, but neither communities nor the government was prepared.
Landslides and flash floods claimed about 300 lives in the district and at least half of its 135 000 population were heavily impacted, a 2021 study found.
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