Africa-Press – Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe’s economy has been officially rebased to an estimated US$52,4 billion for 2025, positioning the country as the second-largest economy in Southern Africa after South Africa.
The revised figures, released by Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency, follow a comprehensive economic census conducted in 2023 that captured previously underreported sectors, particularly the informal economy.
Treasury, under Permanent Secretary George Guvamatanga, now operates on a significantly improved fiscal footing, with the debt-to-GDP ratio dropping to 45% from about 60% under the previous measurement framework.
Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube said the updated figures also push Zimbabwe’s gross national income per capita to approximately US$3 200, strengthening the country’s trajectory towards its Vision 2030 targets.
The rebasing exercise revised GDP to US$44,5 billion for 2023 and US$45,7 billion for 2024, with 2025 projections anchored on 6,6% real economic growth. This expansion has been driven by a strong rebound in agriculture, which grew by 24%, alongside mining growth of 7,3% and manufacturing gains of 4,2%.
According to the International Monetary Fund, Zimbabwe’s economy is independently estimated at US$53,3 billion, closely aligning with the new official figures. The World Bank has also endorsed the growth trajectory, projecting a 5% expansion in 2026 and noting that Zimbabwe is outperforming several sub-Saharan African peers.
The updated data reshapes Zimbabwe’s position in the region, placing it ahead of economies such as Zambia (US$28,9 billion), Mozambique (US$23,8 billion), Botswana (US$19,4 billion), Namibia (US$14,2 billion) and Malawi (US$14 billion).
Economists say the rebasing corrects a long-standing underestimation of Zimbabwe’s economy, which had been benchmarked to a 2012 base year. Over the past decade, structural changes — particularly the rapid expansion of the informal sector — were not fully reflected in national accounts.
The informal economy alone is now estimated to generate about US$14,2 billion annually, with thousands of businesses that emerged after 2019 only recently incorporated into official statistics.
The revision also has major implications for debt sustainability. Under the new framework, Zimbabwe’s approximately US$23 billion debt burden appears more manageable relative to the expanded GDP base, strengthening its case in ongoing arrears clearance discussions under the Structured Dialogue Platform.
International comparisons highlight the significance of crossing the US$50 billion threshold. Economies such as Vietnam and South Korea experienced accelerated growth after reaching similar milestones, though analysts caution that sustained reforms will be key to replicating such trajectories.
Experts warn that rebasing alone does not guarantee long-term gains. Countries like Nigeria and Ghana saw limited lasting benefits following similar exercises, underscoring the need for continued fiscal discipline and structural reforms.
Zimbabwe’s current advantage, analysts say, lies in aligning the rebasing with broader macroeconomic stabilisation efforts, including lower inflation, improved fiscal balances, and stronger agricultural output.
Attention is now turning to revenue mobilisation. With revenues currently at around 15% of GDP, aligning with regional averages could unlock an additional US$780 million annually without increasing tax rates.
Economists say the rebasing marks not the creation of a larger economy, but the recognition of one that had long been underestimated.
“Zimbabwe did not become a US$50 billion economy this year,” one analyst noted. “It became one years ago — the statistics have finally caught up.”
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