Africa-Press – Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe has announced a record winter wheat harvest of 639,942 metric tonnes for 2025 — the highest since commercial production began in 1966, according to the Ministry of Lands, Agriculture, Fisheries, Water and Rural Development. The output, planted over 122,566 hectares, exceeds annual consumption of 360,000 MT by nearly 280,000 MT, theoretically positioning Zimbabwe as an exporter.
The bumper crop represents a 511% increase from 2019’s 94,685 MT, driven by irrigation expansion, mechanisation, and the Presidential Input Programme. It also places Zimbabwe, alongside Ethiopia, among the only African countries claiming full wheat self-sufficiency.
Yet soaring import figures challenge the credibility of this surplus narrative. Wheat import values from 2021 to FY2024 totaled US$446.2 million, rising annually from US$80.61 million to US$140.46 million. In just the first nine months of 2025, imports hit US$146.6 million, pacing toward US$195 million — a new record despite the declared surplus.
Government officials attribute continued imports to quality issues: local soft wheat meets ~70% of demand, while the remaining 30% requires high-gluten hard wheat for blending. The Grain Millers Association of Zimbabwe (GMAZ) argues that domestic wheat at 8–10% protein falls short of the 12–14% gluten required for roughly one-third of milling processes.
But the numbers do not add up. A strict 70/30 blend would require 108,000 MT of imported hard wheat — about US$27 million at global prices of US$250/MT. Instead, 2025 import values imply ~780,000 MT, or 7.2 times the volume needed for blending. Imports are not supplementing local supply; they are displacing it.
Historical comparisons sharpen the contradiction. From 2015–2019, when domestic output averaged ~70,000 MT, imports ranged from US$51–106 million, consistent with covering a deficit. But between 2021 and 2025, while production surged 511%, import values jumped 550%. The import-to-consumption ratio soared from 33% in 2019 to a projected 217% in 2025. Total wheat supply — domestic plus imported — now exceeds 1.4 million MT, nearly four times national consumption.
Even assuming all imports were hard wheat, the volumes far exceed blending needs, pointing to waste, re-exports, or overstated domestic production. Crucially, import dependency has remained stuck at ~55% of supply, even as local soft wheat output has multiplied sixfold — the opposite of what rising self-sufficiency should produce.
The wheat paradox mirrors maize. A forecast 2.29 million MT maize surplus for 2024/25 shrank to 1.82 million MT after audits, prompting an import ban in August 2025 — then a reversal two months later amid shortages. Similar cycles in wheat saw initial surplus declarations, followed by border reopenings and heavy private inflows, including 220,092 MT of wheat worth US$52.6 million from South Africa early in 2025.
Statutory Instrument 87 of 2025 waived duties on grain imports, while the state released 6,518 MT from reserves. Private grain inflows surged: 907,318 tonnes of South African maize (May 2024–Jan 2025), 1.13 million tonnes of private maize imports within 1.35 million tonnes of total grains by Feb 2025, plus mid-year arrivals of 567,160 MT — including 65,090 MT imported during the ban.
While ZIMSTAT stands by its production figures, USDA estimates trail by 40–50%, attributing the gap to optimistic pre-season forecasts designed to spur planting under state programmes.
The 2024 wheat season foreshadowed these contradictions. A reported 562,091 MT “bumper harvest” justified an import halt, but the country soon faced shortages — including a 20,000 MT deficit in milling by-products for stock feed — forcing border reopenings in March. Continued private imports then depressed prices and sidelined domestic millers.
Agriculture contributes 11–14% of GDP and 70% of jobs, yet only 10% of arable land is irrigated. Climate shocks have intensified: El Niño now strikes every four years, compared to every ten before 1980.
In practice, a genuine bumper harvest should reduce imports — not coincide with record inflows. Zimbabwe’s wheat data present fundamental contradictions that demand satellite verification, independent audits, and targeted upgrades in high-gluten seed varieties and irrigation systems to reconcile declared gains with market realities. — Equity Axis.
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