By Osvaldo Franque Buela (*)
Africa-Press – Angola. To set the tone and answer this important question, I will begin by clarifying a little the political path of this political actor, sometimes treated as a traitor to UNITA, but also as an initiator of what we call in politics, a vector of the third way.
Abel Chivukuvuku’s political career from CASA-CE to the PRA-JA project is marked by moments of prominence, splits and persistence but above all the determination of a man in constant evolution, taking into account his independent political path from the formation of CASA-CE, Convergência Ampla de Salvação de Angola – Coligação Eleitoral.
Abel Chivukuvuku, a former prominent member of UNITA, left the party in 2012 to found CASA-CE. The coalition was created with the aim of offering a political “third way” in Angola, positioning itself as an alternative to both the MPLA and UNITA. Under his leadership, CASA-CE achieved significant results in the 2012 legislative elections, becoming the third largest political force in the country, and in 2017 it again consolidated its position.
In 2019, Abel Chivukuvuku was removed from the leadership of CASA-CE, due to an alleged “breach of trust” with the coalition’s constituent parties. This departure marked the end of his time at CASA-CE and the beginning of a new chapter in his political career.
This is how, after his forced resignation from CASA-CE, Chivukuvuku began the process to legalize a new political formation, the Angolan Renaissance Party – Together for Angola, PRA-JA Serving Angola.
This project will not have a favorable outcome, but will encounter many obstacles from the regime, taking into account the successes achieved by its first political project, thus becoming an element to be politically destroyed.
However, the legalization process was turbulent, with the Angolan Constitutional Court rejecting the registration on several occasions, alleging irregularities in the documentation and signatures collected (more than 30,000, exceeding the 7,500 required by law). This was the beginning of a great struggle to overcome the obstacles, and once again his determination would never weaken because the man is a true idea machine.
Chivukuvuku and his supporters denounced what they considered to be the “hand” of the MPLA in the decisions of the Constitutional Court, seeing them as attempts to make their political project unviable, but the surprise came in 2024, once again opening debates and fake news around this legalization that no one expected to result.
Despite successive “rejections”, PRA-JA Servir Angola was finally legalized by the Constitutional Court in October 2024, after more than four years of attempts.
However, the third way man had, before the legalization of PRA-JA, already articulated with other opposition forces, which allowed him in the 2022 general elections, to participate as vice-head of the list of UNITA, within the scope of the United Patriotic Front (FPU), an alliance that brought together UNITA, the PRA-JA Servir Angola movement and the Democratic Bloc.
This alliance demonstrated its ability to integrate into broader opposition platforms, even when its own party was not yet fully legalized. Abel Chivukuvuku is currently the elected leader of PRA-JA Servir Angola.
You can therefore see, as I do, that Abel Chivukuvuku’s career reflects the dynamics and dynamism of the Angolan political arena, with his persistence in creating and leading opposition movements, facing legal challenges and seeking alternatives to remain active in the country’s political scene.
From then on, will Abel be able to be part of the government or become government in 2027?
I would say yes and without hesitation, Abel Chivukuvuku has expressed the ambition that his party, PRA-JA Servir Angola, will become the Government or part of the Government in 2027, because the man has a strong ambition, and that can surprise any less enlightened mind in his way of seeing and making opposition. His way of making opposition has never been to oppose for the sake of opposing, but rather to oppose to overcome and exploit the weaknesses of a power that must be achieved by aligning himself in the center of the two main parties in the country.
Since the legalization of PRA-JA, Chivukuvuku has publicly reiterated the objective of reaching a position of power in the next elections and in several statements, including during the party’s constituent congress, he stated that PRA-JA is preparing to “be in power or part of power” in 2027.
Strategies and Alliances
To achieve this objective, it is necessary to know on which strategic bases and alliances it will be based, and for this, several scenarios are possible, one of which is a candidacy alone.
Although he participated in the United Patriotic Front (FPU) in the 2022 elections, Abel Chivukuvuku has signaled that PRA-JA may run alone in 2027, given that it “suffered a lot” from the FPU experience. This option indicates an intention to build an independent and consolidated political force.
The second is the coalition with other political forces, because despite the possibility of running alone, Chivukuvuku also does not rule out forming coalitions with other opposition political forces. He emphasizes that PRA-JA is open to concertation, but not to “aggregation” (i.e., it will not dissolve into other forces). This suggests that the party seeks partnerships on an equal footing, with the aim of building a broader front to challenge the party in power, and why not form an alliance with the current government?
The third option is dialogue with all parties, and Abel has always defended the need for a forum extended to all parties to design the future of Angola, promoting dialogue and the “building of bridges” between the various political actors, which gives him a strong possibility of attracting a broad base of intellectuals and other emerging political actors who want change without verbal violence or political attacks bordering on intolerance.
Through this political vision of the third way, we see here the commitment of a man who knows perfectly well that despite his declared ambition, the achievement of the objective of being in government or part of it in 2027 will depend on several factors, such as:
Mobilization Capacity. PRA-JA will need to demonstrate its ability to mobilize and grow its electoral base to establish itself as a relevant political force.
Strength of the Opposition. The success of PRA-JA, whether alone or in coalition, will also depend on the cohesion and effectiveness of the Angolan opposition as a whole.
Angolan Political Landscape. Political dynamics in Angola, including the role of the MPLA and UNITA, will continue to shape the possibilities for emerging parties to access power.
I will say it again clearly, summarizing that the intention of Abel Chivukuvuku and PRA-JA Servir Angola to be in government or part of the government in 2027 is clear. The party is positioning itself for the next elections, exploring both the possibility of a strong candidacy of its own and that of strategic coalitions.
Could Abel Chivukuvuku form an alliance with the MPLA to govern together, if the MPLA does not reach the necessary votes?
It is a very remote possibility, but in the Angolan political context, where strategic alliances and twists and turns are not uncommon, it cannot be completely ruled out.
Historically, Abel Chivukuvuku has been an opposition figure, emerging from UNITA and creating CASA-CE and, more recently, PRA-JA Servir Angola, with the aim of offering an alternative to the two main blocs (MPLA and UNITA). He has been a vocal critic of the MPLA and its policies but has never harbored animosity towards certain regime dignitaries since narrowly escaping death during the bloody post-election clashes in Luanda in 1992.
However, politics is the art of the possible, and in scenarios of electoral impasse or lack of an absolute majority, unexpected negotiations may arise. If the MPLA does not obtain the majority necessary to govern alone in 2027, and if it needs support to form a government, it would seek partners to govern together.
The reasons for a potential alliance (although unlikely) would be purely pragmatic.
MPLA’s need. If the MPLA needs additional votes to form a government, it could consider several options, including opposition elements that are open to an agreement.
Interest of PRA-JA. For PRA-JA, an alliance with the MPLA could be a way to gain power and influence governance, something that would otherwise be difficult to achieve. However, this would have a very high political cost in terms of credibility with its voters and the opposition.
All this may seem unlikely, but viable in Abel’s view despite the theory, in practice, an alliance between Abel Chivukuvuku and the MPLA could face major obstacles based on ideological and political differences.
Chivukuvuku’s platforms and speeches have consistently been in opposition to the MPLA’s status quo, focusing on issues such as corruption, better governance and democratic change. An alliance with the MPLA would be seen as a betrayal of these principles.
Chivukuvuku’s support base, although not as large as UNITA’s, is made up of voters who seek change and who are largely anti-MPLA. Such an alliance could demobilize and alienate this base, but to do so, Abel will be able to use his great powers of persuasion.
As for his powers of persuasion, Abel Chivukuvuku’s own path is one of dissent and of building alternatives to the established parties. Allied with the MPLA, I do not believe that he would completely lose his identity as a “third way” or opposition force. This is the new political scenario that we could experience in 2027.
Chivukuvuku ran in the last elections as part of the FPU, an opposition alliance led by UNITA. Abel prepared himself well and it would not be contradictory for him, after this experience, to ally himself with the MPLA.
Most Likely Scenarios
It is much more likely that, if the MPLA needs to form alliances, it will seek out smaller parties or independent figures less aligned with the strongest opposition. For Abel Chivukuvuku, the most natural alliances, if it is unable to form a government alone, would be with other opposition forces to try to dislodge the MPLA from power.
I would conclude by saying that, although in political chess everything is theoretically impossible, an alliance between Abel Chivukuvuku and the MPLA to govern together is possible but it would be a high-risk and very unlikely political move, given their trajectory and systematic opposition.
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