Roboredo Garcia
Africa-Press – Angola. The removal of fuel subsidies in Angola stems not simply from an “ideological obsession,” as Rui Verde suggested on Maka Angola, or from the government’s desire to mistreat people. It also stems from the material unsustainability of fuel subsidies in Angola, due to the rapid increase in the number of users, while production is declining and oil prices are low due to trade policies implemented by Saudi Arabia and the US. As you can see, walking away doesn’t change these facts.
Angola’s per capita oil production, or per 100,000 inhabitants, has fallen to 11 barrels per capita, four times lower than its 2010 peak and twice the figure for 2000. To give you an idea of our new poverty, the United Arab Emirates (Dubai) sustainably produces 49.5 barrels per capita.
In other words, with oil being our largest source of income, accounting for 90% of exports and 70% of government revenue, Angola has far fewer resources today than it did in the past.
This situation stems from both the decline in oil production, since its peak in 2010, with 2 million barrels per day compared to 1.1 million today, and the demographic increase that caused Angola’s population to increase from 12 million people to 32 million people.
How will Angola sustain this subsidy, which cost the State 15 billion dollars in the period from 2021 to 2024, when Angola’s population will be 45 million people in 2035?
The geological fact of the decline in oil production and the demographic fact of the growth of the national population are ignored, with part of society wasting time with marches and conspiracy theories about a “lack of political will.”
Since Angola’s geology is immutable, all we can do is change its demographics or accept that poverty will be the natural consequence of increased taxes in the face of stagnant revenue.
Protesting in front of the Saudi Arabian embassy would have been the only effective action that could have been taken on the 12th.
The problem of smuggling.
The irrationality of the debate continues in the suggestions made to end smuggling without removing the subsidy, which boil down to selling Angolan fuel to neighboring countries when they do not have a shortage of fuel on the international market, but in fact want fuel at prices subsidized by the Angolan government.
Before subsidies were phased out, smuggling was causing fuel shortages.
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