Africa-Press – Botswana. Department of Meteorology Services anticipates a severe drought during the 2023/24 season due to El Niño condition that has been observed in the southern hemisphere.
Enhanced probabilities of below normal precipitation were forecasted for Botswana with increased risk of drought over some areas while the eastern parts would be particularly dry.
Department of Meteorology Services principal meteorologist, Ms Maureen Oabile revealed this when giving an update on the seasonal forecast at the ongoing National Disaster Risk Reduction Preparedness conference.
The conference themed: Building Resilience to Disaster Through Stakeholder Engagement, the Key to Sustainable Development started in Maun on Monday and will end on Friday.
El Niño, she said, was anticipated to continue in the Southern hemisphere summer with greater than 95 per cent chances through December 2023 to February 2024.
She explained that the El Niño condition could affect the weather significantly and possibly lead to extreme patterns such as strong forest fires due to drought.
“This condition can bring more challenges such as temperature rising, drought and associated food insecurity, flooding rains and it can also cause a wide range of health problems including disease outbreaks, malnutrition and heat stress among others,” she added.
Ms Oabile warned members of the public to prepare for the worst season, advising crop farmers to approach their agricultural demonstrators to get advice on which types of crops they should plant to be able to survive the worst condition.
She said it was unfortunate as many farmers did not plough last ploughing season, due to shortage of tractors while some who ploughed very late did not reap good yields because of declining rainfall.
Giving the forecast summary, Ms Oabile said Chobe, Ngamiland, Ghanzi and Kgalagadi areas would experience normal to below rainfall in the months of October, November and December.
Normal rains ranging from 50mm over Kgalagadi to 200mm over Chobe areas will be experienced with above normal temperatures ranging between 32and 33 degrees Celsius.
Furthermore, areas of North East, central, South East, Kgatleng, Kweneng and Southern districts, she said, would experience below normal rainfall ranging from 120mm over Southern District to 180mm over North East and above normal temperatures ranging between 31-34 degrees Celsius.
In the months of January, February and March 2024, areas of Chobe, Ngamiland, Ghanzi, Kgalagadi, South East, Kgatleng, Kweneng, Southern and North Central districts would experience normal to below normal rainfall ranging between 120mm over Kgalagadi to 320mm over Chobe and above normal temperatures between 30-34 degrees Celsius, she said.
North East and South Central districts would have below normal rainfall ranging from 180mm to 220mm over north east and above normal temperatures.
“In overall, a relatively hot and dry season is anticipated,” she added.
Ms Oabile also apprised the gathering that a dry spell was experienced in January and February had an improvement while in March rainfall distribution was poor due to another dry spell. Overall rainfall, she said, was below normal except over the Southeast, Southern, Kweneng, Kgatleng and Eastern Ngamiland.
Water Utilities Corporation hydrologist, Mr Lesego Raditsebe shared the corporation Standard Operation Procedure (SOP) noting that they also experienced disasters such as floods or human induced disaster that could cause significant damage to property and posed risks to human life.
Within the country, he mentioned dams and rivers as two major floods events which were common citing that floods associated with rivers could be particularly dangerous because they could occur quickly, especially during the rainy season citing ‘Dineo floods’ in 2017.
With respect to dams, he mentioned scenarios such as dam failure, emergency dam release, flash floods and downstream flooding.
To manage the floods disaster, Mr Raditsebe noted that the corporation developed SOP which outlined the steps to be taken by individuals and organisations to prepare for, respond to and recover from a flood event.
“It is important to be aware of the potential risks and to have a plan in place in case of a flood hence SOP are essential for ensuring a coordinated and effective response to floods and they can help to reduce the loss of live and property if implemented well,” he added.
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