Africa-Press – Lesotho. A recent article in The Hill by Will Marshall, CEO of the Progressive Policy Institute, a Washington, DC based think tank, titled ‘Xi’s Losing Bet on Putin is Backfiring’ caught my eye. Mr Marshall has marshaled an array of factual statements to make his case. It is not entirely clear that he has indeed made the case.
It certainly appears that Putin is overall a loser when it comes to his lack of success in his invasion of Ukraine, his battlefield setbacks and enormous death toll Russia’s forces have tallied to this point.
Some Western sideline cheerleaders, mostly media and politician types, marvel at the resilience of Ukrainian patriots repulsing Russian troops and missile attacks.
Somewhat more sobering pronouncements from military types suggest the war is far from over and attrition continues to take its ugly toll on Ukraine as well.
To what extent Ukraine can survive as a viable nation will be revealed in history books. Those chapters remain to be written. First, there was Xi’s declaration of a “no limits” partnership with Russia — essentially the fundamental bet on Putin.
Mr Marshall writes that the announcement, coming as the Beijing Olympics got underway in February 2022, was mistimed. Whether Xi knew from Putin that his invasion of Ukraine was imminent or not, is beside the point.
American intelligence anticipated and telegraphed the move. As I have written in the past, sadly, President Biden failed to call Putin’s bluff and prevent it.
Perhaps Xi ignored the reports by American intelligence and mistimed his declaration of a love fest with Putin. That Xi was all-in with Putin became clear when China refused to support a UN resolution condemning Russia’s unprovoked aggression.
In Trumpian fashion, Xi’s government parroted Putin’s lie that NATO expansion posed a mortal threat to Russia’s security. But Russia’s invasion didn’t go as well as Putin and Xi expected. Russian forces did not blitz through its neighbour’s territory. And President Zelensky proved a formidable and heroic opponent.
As Putin’s inept war, labelled euphemistically, a special military operation eroded into a military debacle, Ukrainian morale soared, and a hitherto somewhat fragmented US-European-British alliance solidified.
This was precisely what Xi’s embrace of Putin did not contemplate, indeed, sought to fracture. It certainly looks as if Xi’s notion of forging a formidable Beijing-Moscow alliance to rival the US, and its European, British, Australian, and Japanese rivals came apart.
Indeed, even India, ever recusant about condemning Russia’s invasion, has become a member of the QUAD — America, Japan, Australia, and India. And now, US-India relations look ever stronger.
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