Patrick Njoroge
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https://www.ft.com/content/cb995b17-4f41-4a79-9a19-29b4f0711ed8
When the dust settles on the Trump tariff war, African economies and others in the global south will be hit hardest, thrust into a world with diminished options for advancing their development. It may signal a long hard winter but the moment calls for honest self-assessment and realistic optimism, rather than pessimism or surrender.
For the global south, 2025 has been plagued by increasing uncertainty. Sub-Saharan Africa countries have faced significant external and internal pressures that imperil the post-Covid recovery and threaten to reverse two decades of economic gains. Many nations are still reeling from increased borrowing costs; Africa’s external debt service payments are at their highest in more than two decades. Adding to their challenges, Washington has imposed or threatened significant tariffs, which will be devastating to export-dependent African economies. At the same time, policy uncertainties in the advanced economies have made it difficult for African governments to rely on the traditional external supports.
Finally, as armed conflicts continue to rage within Africa and beyond, major donors have sharply slashed official development assistance and further cuts are expected, hitting African countries hardest. Following a 9 per cent fall in aid in 2024, the OECD projects a further 9-17 per cent decline in 2025, imperilling critical donor-supported health and education programmes across the continent.
Domestically, the fiscal options have narrowed for many governments due to the increased cost of servicing debt, which often consumes more than spending on health or education. Making matters worse, the continent still suffers from a large infrastructure gap. Just under half of sub-Saharan Africa’s population does not have access to electricity. There has also been inadequate job growth despite the continent being home to 11 of the world’s 20 fastest-growing economies. Africa creates just 3.7mn jobs annually; it needs 10mn to 12mn to absorb the fast-growing labour force — a situation that is prompting rising discontent especially among the young, due to limited employment opportunities and poor public accountability.
There are no quick fixes. A collaborative and sustained effort is needed to alter this trajectory. Undoubtedly, a predictable global trade regime is essential. While sub-Saharan Africa’s share in global trade is small, it is heavily reliant on external trade — with a trade-to-GDP ratio of roughly 60 per cent — making it especially vulnerable to shocks in global trade policy. Regrettably, the African Growth and Opportunity Act, through which 35 African countries traded with the US, expires in September but has already been overtaken by the unilateral tariffs.
African governments need to direct their limited resources towards social capital and critical infrastructure. They must work urgently to stabilise their economies by strengthening domestic markets, bolstering institutions and accountability, and protecting the vulnerable. According to the World Bank, 35 per cent of adults in sub-Saharan Africa now save through formal channels, thanks to mobile money. Diaspora remittances offer valuable support and have surpassed aid and foreign direct investment combined. Diversification of trading partners and economic sectors, and advancing regional integration, will also be crucial in strengthening economic resilience.
For Africa to truly prosper, reform of the global financial architecture needs to accelerate. The IMF and World Bank will need to be refitted for purpose, with stronger governance and safety nets. Deeper reforms of credit rating agencies are needed to increase their transparency and address the high-risk premium paid by many African governments, while aligning borrowing costs, credit ratings and banking regulatory standards to historical trends rather than perceptions.
Finally, there is an urgent need for comprehensive debt relief that goes beyond the country-by-country G20 framework, as was recognised at a recent development conference in Seville. It would arrest the downward spiral of heavily indebted countries. Just as John Maynard Keynes noted in his prescient critique of the punitive terms imposed on Germany at the end of the first world war, such relief today could avert dire consequences for the rest of the world. The repercussions of poverty and collapsing governments cannot be contained within borders.
The world’s economic challenges will be felt most intensely in Africa. It is time for all nations to help strengthen the continent’s economic prospects. Otherwise, there will be no winners.
source:ft
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