Africa-Press – Mauritius. The news broke on Tuesday afternoon. The Privy Council will deliver its verdict in the case between SurenDayal and Pravind Jugnauth and his two running mates on Monday afternoon.
This verdict has been eagerly awaited for several weeks because it will allow political parties but also Mauritians to be clear about the electoral calendar and the political situation for the year to come. As we enter the final year of the government’s mandate, the Privy Council’s verdict will give visibility to the build-up for the next elections.
Indeed, as we enter the last year of the government’s mandate, the Privy Council verdict will provide visibility regarding the “build-up” for the next elections, allowing the different political parties to refine their weapons and strategies.
for the next elections. Two scenarios will be put into place from Monday. In the first scenario, SurenDayal wins the case, which will de facto invalidate the 2019 election to constituency number 8. The direct consequence will be that the PM will no longer be an elected official, and will have to immediately leave the PMO.
He will then have two options: be replaced by a member of his party while waiting for the organization of a partial election in which he could run again (constituency no. 7, Piton/Rivière-du-Rempart, has been mentioned several times ) or he will directly dissolve the National Assembly and we will head towards early general elections.
This scenario is what the opposition alliance wants. She currently has a little wind in her wings. And a favorable verdict in his favor could consolidate his electoral base and give him real chances of success for the next games.
And this will above all reinforce the imperative that the PTr, the MMM and the PMSD will have to bring the negotiations and their electoral program to a successful conclusion as quickly as possible.
The hearing at the Privy Council pushed them to announce the finalization of the alliance even though there was no real agreement. If Dayal wins his case, it will force them to bring to fruition all the points that are currently pending.
The second scenario is that of a defeat for SurenDayal, which will de facto mean a victory for PravindJugnauth and his running mates. We guess that the government will maintain its schedule in this scenario, and that it will be in absolutely no hurry to call Mauritians to the polls.
However, it will be necessary to consider that the PM could choose to remain cautious. The geopolitical crisis which has opened up in the Middle East will have a certain negative impact on the world economy, which will have the consequence of plunging the Mauritian economy into instability which could turn against the government.
Thus, the window of opportunity is not as wide as some close to the PMO may think, and global inflation and its impact could play a big role in announcing the date of the elections.
That being said, a victory for PravindJugnauth will especially have important ramifications for the opposition. SurenDayal will already have to pay all the costs of the trial, even having to foot the bill for the lawyers of the opposing parties.
The amount he will have to pay will be 7 figures. But, more seriously, the PM will remain the master of political time, which means that the opposition will find itself in an extremely uncomfortable situation.
First of all, it will be a blessing for the MSM propagandists who will do everything to try to demolish the argument that has been deployed since the 2019 elections on the “rigging” of the last elections.
The credibility of the various leaders of the alliance will take a big hit with this part of the electorate who votes for reason and not for ideology.
We can easily guess the reproaches and criticisms to come (which remain internal for the moment) and which could surface in the public space, probably during a bi-monthly press conference. It will then only be a matter of time before the cards are redistributed within this alliance.
At least that is what the MSM would like, which will remain in ambush, preparing for a quickly formed alliance with one of these three parties and “snap elections” leaving no time for the other two parties to grant their violins.
He will even force them to go alone to the next elections, in order to avoid repeating the pattern of 1995 and 2014. We can only remain in the realm of hypothesis and consider scenarios for now. But these speculations will indeed become real from Monday, one way or the other.
Also, it will be interesting to listen to the content of Navin Ramgoolam’s speech at the congress at rue Magon this Friday, a return to the places where he had unfortunately given a certain speech on the “katoris”, which had caused him much inconveniences.
. Hamas reignites the fuse of war in the Middle East Last Saturday, October 7, Hamas launched a massive attack against Israel from the Gaza Strip.
This attack used several thousand rockets, nearly 5,000 according to Hamas sources, and there was the infiltration of militants into Israeli territory, particularly towns and kibbutzim near the border with Gaza.
This operation made use of all the means that Hamas possessed, with attempts by land, sea and air through the use of motorized hang gliders in particular.
The Israeli navy was able to destroy the efforts coming from the sea and the “Iron Dome” anti-missile defense system stopped almost 90% of the rockets fired, but this did not prevent Hamas from entering Israeli territory and to control a few portions for several hours.
Indeed, the Israeli security forces took some time before reacting, precious time during which Hamas forces managed to take control of several regions, causing hundreds of deaths and also taking hostages.
The death toll from the first three days of fighting brought the death toll to more than 900 on the Israeli side, making it the deadliest attack in Israel in 75 years. The number of deaths in three days even exceeds the total deaths in the last 20 years in Israel.
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