Africa-Press – Mauritius. After the announcement of the agreement reached between the Labor Party, the MMM and the PMSD on the principle of an alliance in anticipation of the next municipal elections, questions arise about the viability of such an alliance.
Is this finally the right one, in your opinion? And, is it believable? Jean Claude de l’Estrac: If this alliance is made for the municipal elections – in case they are held – it will be made for the legislative elections, unless the results of the ballot boxes are catastrophic for it.
This alliance was made possible because Bérenger resolved to support Navin Ramgoolam in his quest for a new mandate. If the results are convincing in the municipal elections, they will cement the alliance.
If, on the contrary, voters shun this new coalition, it is likely that a stampede will ensue. * Paul Bérenger and Xavier Duval had opposed the idea of Navin Ramgoolam being presented as a candidate for the post of Prime Minister last February.
What has changed, in your opinion, for Paul Bérenger and Xavier Duval to return to better feelings in relation to a possible ‘prime ministership’ of Navin Ramgoolam?
The Labor Party, its executive committee as constituted, will choose no one other than Ramgoolam to lead the next electoral battles. And I do not see Ramgoolam sharing a prime ministerial mandate.
The question of another Labor candidate for the post of Prime Minister will only arise if Ramgoolam, for one reason or another, is prevented from doing so.
Bérenger and Duval ended up dubbing Ramgoolam for lack of the emergence of another prime minister potentially capable of giving the reply to Pravind Jugnauth in the ten constituencies that make the elections. This is realpolitics. The idea of a renewal of political leadership is for 2029!
* The most important question, however, is whether this alliance – if it lasts beyond the municipal elections – will obtain the support of a large majority of activists and Labor, and a significant fringe of abstainers to constitute a winning majority?
This is indeed the issue of these municipal elections, if they are held. First, legally, the deadline for organizing these elections is June 13, 2023.
And there again, when this date is reached, the government can always propose to Parliament to vote for a new dismissal. This is what he will be tempted to do in my opinion.
I do not see the government taking the risk of holding these municipal elections, a few months before the legislative elections, in constituencies that are a priori rather won over to the cause of the opposition.
That said, the MSM may want to give it a shot by counting on a scattering of the anti-government vote. * On the other side of the fence, there is the government alliance which has continued to accumulate scandals, and the PM is himself caught in the delicate situation that we know.
At the same time, we are bearing the brunt of the effects of inflation and the economic crisis, with a significant drop in the standard of living. But the government of Pravind Jugnauth does not necessarily seem to be weakening in the eyes of a large part of the electorate.
What explains this, in your opinion? It is the consequence of the extreme fanaticism of one part of the electorate and the indifference of another part.
By the way, we know very little about the real mood of the electorate even if we feel that the loss of their purchasing power is their main concern at the moment. But let’s not extrapolate.
In two years, the situation could be very different; an economic disaster is not inevitable, and the distribution of a few sweets at the right time will undoubtedly be enough to impress the amnesiac that is the voter.
This is Pravind Jugnauth’s bet. * Pravind Jugnauth would also have, at least for the moment, significant support from abroad. Non-negligible achievements, it seems?
If you are talking about electoral support, I do not believe that a foreign contribution is decisive; if you are talking about financial support, I believe that the MSM does not need it.
Moreover, those who wanted to believe that the sniffing affair and the coming-out of Sherry Singh would destabilize the governing alliance were quickly disillusioned, it seems.
The predicted tsunami did not occur. Worse, Sherry Singh seems to have been sidelined by the country’s big parties – the PTr and the MMM, but also the PMSD. Was it predictable? Yes, the great waters of the announced tsunami have turned into pudding water. It was predictable and it’s Sherry Singh’s fault.