Africa-Press – Mauritius. Things still seem vague on the political level, and it seems difficult at this stage to assess the real balance of forces on the ground. Is this also your opinion? Jean Claude de l’Estrac: Everything is vague for the good reason that the vast majority of voters are still undecided.
If they are critical of Pravind Jugnauth’s governance, they are not convinced that the indestructible leaders of the parliamentary opposition embody the desired change.
As for the various movements of the extra-parliamentary opposition, despite some popular successes, they struggle to convince that they represent a credible alternative to the two blocks of traditional parties.
The situation will remain unclear until the date of the elections is fixed. It is likely that new political offers will broaden the choice presented to the electorate.
And if they appear credible, it is possible to anticipate a redistribution of the cards. * The rallies of the PTr-MMM-PMSD alliance and its last meeting in Flacq were a definite success.
But do these crowd movements towards the opposition have any importance in the current context given that we are probably 12 or 18 months away from the next legislative elections?
Crowd warfare has psychological importance. It’s the average citizen’s poll. The voter believes he can get an idea of the relative strength of the parties by comparing their mobilization capacity.
A significant percentage of the electorate is fundamentally opportunistic. His political science is knowing how to sense the direction of the wind. This is why parties make so much effort to demonstrate their capacity for electoral mobilization.
In this game, the parties in power generally have a greater force of attraction because they shamelessly rely on state institutions. But it doesn’t work every time. AneroodJugnauthen had the bitter experience in 1995.
* Even if the vagueness persists, what these successes of the Opposition teach us is that the battle will be tough and tough, and the MSM will have to face an enormous challenge to stay in power in the event that the PTr, the MMM and PMSD manage to stay united? This is the other unknown in the story.
Will the PTr-MMM-PMSD alliance last? Will the PMSD resist the seductions of the MSM for much longer? The gang in Jugnauth evokes two offers: the presidency of the Republic to Xavier Duva and a folding seat to his son Adrien or the position of vice Prime Minister and Minister of Finance to Xavier .
But within the parliamentary opposition, we do not imagine that Duval could return under the wings of Pravind Jugnauth after having left him so spectacularly and so honorably.
Let us have no illusions. The MSM understands that it must try to broaden its electoral base. Every outgoing government knows that, whatever the quality of its achievements, power wears down, a certain electoral erosion is inevitable.
We must then seek to compensate with new electoral support. For the MSM, this contribution can only come, in this case, from the PMSD. If Xavier Duval’s current partners, Bérenger in particular, continue to want to bully him (even if the PMSD’s claims are perhaps exaggerated), it is not certain that Duval, who has the choice, will not cross the Rubicon .
It is true that he is still hesitant, fearing that his electorate will not follow him. This happened to the PMSD of 44% several times! * Beyond the difficulties and contradictions inherent in alliances, there is also the question of personal sensitivity, interests and political ambitions of each of the leaders of the PTr, MMM and PMSD which can scuttle an alliance.
“Liberate the country from the Jugnauth Government” – is this enough of a political program to convince the electorate and also to cement and make their alliance last?
Although it is true that, generally speaking, voters tend to cast a vote of rejection rather than a vote of support, a growing number of voters are interested in party programs, particularly young people and women.
. Various surveys in recent months confirm this provision. For the moment, beyond a few proposals from the opposition alliance, we are not yet faced with a real alternation program. It won’t be easy either.
Since the end of ideologies, all our parties have, in reality, the same liberal program, dressed up in a more or less socializing discourse and demagogic proposals.
In truth, what will make the difference for the nation is the quality – competence, experience and integrity – of the men and women who will put themselves forward for our votes.
* You know that the MSM is preparing to organize a “big show” in view of the imminent victory, it seems, of Pravind Jugnauth at the “Privy Council” in the electoral petition case lodged by SurenDayal.
Elections would follow afterwards, it is said, at least by the end of the year. Is this plausible? I do not believe that. A favorable verdict from the “Privy Council” (even if not unanimous) will certainly be an electoral boost for PravindJugnauth.
But the most decisive, electorally, is to come: the next budget of June 2024. Voters tend to rely on hard cash. I bet this will be the most electoral budget in our entire political history. Lutchmeenaraidoo can go get dressed
For More News And Analysis About Mauritius Follow Africa-Press
