Africa-Press – Mauritius. We have been experiencing important world events for the past few weeks. The Chinese Communist Party Congress with the third term of Xi Jinping and the renewal of the Politburo, or even the arrival of Rishi Sunak at 10 Downing Street.
Are these events important to us? Avinaash Munohur: Very important indeed! First of all, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Congress – which unfortunately received very little commentary in the local media – has just given Xi Jinping a third five-year term.
It is the first time a Chinese leader has won a third term since Mao Zedong, demonstrating Xi Jinping’s power over the CCP apparatus. This power is by no means insignificant since it is based on the vision of Chinese-style globalization that Xi Jinping has been able to transform into concrete projects with the ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ (BRI) as the iron spear.
But, on closer inspection, things are more complex than that and China finds itself at a pivotal moment in its contemporary history. The Covid and the zero Covid policy will produce a slowdown in Chinese growth, which should not exceed 5.5% this year, with a high unemployment rate among young people – almost 20%.
At the same time, some BRI projects are slowing down. The real estate bubble produced by Evergrande also has a negative impact on the Chinese economy, even if the Chinese authorities remain very timid on this issue.
The last CCP congress also enshrined the rejection of Taiwan independence in its charter, further opening the door to war escalation in the South China Sea.
Finally, China is already facing a demographic problem which will increase with the aging of its population and the effects of the one-child policy on the capacities of Chinese production – capacities where the workforce plays a central role. All this depicts a complex political cartography that Xi Jinping will have to know how to manage.
From this point of view, it was interesting to note that he constantly emphasized the long-term vision of China and its place in the emerging multipolar world – vision and place which translates also by a rejuvenation of the leaders surrounding Xi Jinping, it should be specified.
In any case, it is clear that China will continue to be a highly strategic partner for us, as are India, France, the United Kingdom, the SADEC countries, etc.
* There was also the appointment of Rishi Sunak as Prime Minister, the third in the space of four months, and who takes the reins of the country after the short term of Liz Truss, marked by financial turbulence and multiple shifts in tax policy.
. It was clear that Liz Truss’ position had become untenable after the mini-budget fiasco.
A recent poll shows that the vast majority of Britons wanted an early general election and another poll shows that the Tories would be swept away if these elections were held today.
This explains the fact that the different fringes of the Conservative Party preferred to find a candidate who could close the gaps, hoping for an improvement in the economic situation.
And no one but Rishi Sunak currently holds that position. Is this event important to us? I think the only question that should challenge us as Mauritians is this: will Rishi Sunak honor the UN vote for a return of the Chagos to Mauritius?
* Rishi Sunak could represent a transitional Prime Minister, and more will be known about the mindset of the British Conservative Party when he has to present his candidate for Prime Minister in the next general election.
Above all, we will know if there has indeed been an evolution in British political mores on the question of race. What do you think? Let us not forget that Rishi Sunak became PM through an internal election of majority parliamentarians in the context of a disastrous political situation; he did not win a general election by being presented as PM.
This completely changes the situation and puts him de facto in a position of political weakness. And, it is clear that its room for maneuver will be extremely reduced.
The absolutely necessary condition that could make the Conservative Party and British voters return Rishi Sunak to 10 Downing Street at the next general election would be two years of spectacular economic recovery by the Sunak/Hunt duo.
Without it, I can’t imagine the British – who are an extremely conservative people and whose perception of their national identity remains deeply rooted in their history of colonial and racial domination – supporting Rishi Sunak in the next general election, especially since the latter will have to manage galloping inflation and an energy crisis which promises an extremely harsh winter in the United Kingdom.
‘This could really be the winter of the people’s discontent’ to paraphrase Shakespeare.
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