Africa-Press – Mauritius. This first congress will be interesting to feel the temperature of this alliance. Not so much on the side of the supporters, whom we imagine mobilized, but rather on the side of the ability of the various leaders and headliners of these parties to present a unified and aligned front.
Battle mobs inside the alliance Indeed, a positive synergy on the side of the leaders is essential to the establishment of a positive dynamic on the side of the supporters.
From this point of view, this first congress should go well since this alliance needs a founding act from which the work on the ground, and the finalization of the conditions and modalities of the alliance can take place.
Indeed, it seems obvious that nothing is really decided yet. We just learned that the alliance was concluded a few days after the Privy Council hearing. But we still don’t know anything about the distribution of tickets, the composition of the front bench and the electoral program for the next term.
Is this vacuum a strategy of the alliance not to reveal its cards? Or is it the demonstration that there is not only no agreement on these subjects, but that the hearing of the Privy Council forced the three leaders to announce an alliance in haste in order to make ‘damage control ‘?
We don’t know at this stage, and we will have to wait to really know where they are. What is certain is that the alliance must demonstrate that it is credible.
And without a joint program announced at this stage, it must show that it is capable of mobilizing a large crowd, which should not be difficult. Two of the biggest political parties in the country and the PMSD should be able to rally a good crowd.
But we will have to interpret this crowd and understand what it means. Indeed, we can easily guess that each of the three parties is mobilizing to demonstrate its individual strength.
Thus, we may well see a battle of the crowds inside the alliance itself, with an MMM and a PMSD which would have the imperative to show that they are able to rally as many supporters as the PTr.
A crowd that is too red and not purple or blue enough would be a problem and it would be an embarrassment for the two wagons that are the purple and the blue in front of the red locomotive.
Even more, a crowd made up of many more mauves than blues, or of many more blues than mauves, could also send a strong signal to Navin Ramgoolam as to the distribution of tickets and the composition of a ‘front bench ‘.
It is in fact the balance of power between the three parties themselves that will be tested this Friday, in a region of the island where the MMM and the PMSD have no real electoral base.
This means that the architects of these two parties will come mainly from other regions of the island, and their mobilization will be a crucial issue for the two leaders who will have very little room for maneuver in the face of Navin Ramgoolam if they do not fail to demonstrate that they still represent national political forces.
For its part, the MSM and its allies have been particularly quiet for several weeks. Everything even seems to have settled down concerning the recent scandals and we perceive a dead time which is likely to persist.
In fact, it seems increasingly certain that the Privy Council hearing has changed the political dynamics in Mauritius. On the one hand, the PTr, the MMM and the PMSD announced their alliance shortly afterwards.
On the other hand, the scandals that are plaguing the government have taken a back seat in the media and in conversations. This calm before the storm can be explained by the fact that the verdict of the Privy Council, expected by September, could mean the start of the electoral race.
It therefore seems that we are in an in-between where each party gauges its strengths and weaknesses, and refines its strategy. This is exactly what the MSM seems to have been doing for the past few weeks.
It seems that Agent Orange has been extremely present on the ground for some time, especially in rural ridings. The returns would be half fig half grape, with a certain slide for the ruling alliance.
The accumulation of scandals and the problem of the high cost of living add up to produce a complex situation for the governing alliance. The recent budget may have succeeded in mitigating this situation somewhat, but it was not enough to silence the disgruntled.
Will this slide continue for the next few months or will the MSM succeed in reversing the trend? Only the future will tell us. What seems clear for the moment is that this shift is not taking place in favor of the opposition.
But this situation could change and the next few months will be decisive for the MSM. Much like Navin Ramgoolam setting up his strategy for the upcoming elections, Pravind Jugnauth also appears to have a clearly defined strategy in place as well.
And the field surveys carried out recently will be used to refine this strategy. What is certain is that things are not yet fully in place, whether on the side of the new opposition alliance or on the side of the MSM.
And we will have to observe their different positions in the months to come in order to have a better indication of the balance of power that will clash in the next general elections. What is certain is that the observation round has indeed begun, and that things are likely to go very quickly from there.
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