Africa-Press – Mauritius. An agreement in principle for an alliance for the municipal elections bringing together the parliamentary opposition parties – the PTr, the MMM and the PMSD – was reached during the past week.
Is this what explains the nervousness and aggressiveness of the leader of the MSM towards any opposition? Lindsay Rivière: Extensively! Nothing seems to be going well for Pravind Jugnauth anymore.
If the end of his first mandate, in 2019, allowed him to approach the elections of that year with optimism, his second mandate is close to a real nightmare: two years of Covid; repeated scandals; miscellaneous affairs shocking the nation; a much less efficient ministerial and parliamentary team than in 2014-19; a faltering economy; a social crisis due to the high cost of living; double-digit inflation to manage, etc.
The PM is nervous and aggressive because all this constantly stresses him out and we would be less. PravindJugnauth feels that the ground is slipping under his feet and we can imagine him frustrated and annoyed with each bad news. Notice that he gets some of this trouble on himself by his method of bringing it all on himself and promoting hyper-personalization of power.
* It appears in any case plausible that the ‘mood’ and ‘body language’ of the leader of the government alliance betray a defensive and defiant posture of a political leader in the face of a possible battle that he intends to face in the coming months.
Moreover, the current tour of the Prime Minister in all the constituencies seems to reinforce this growing feeling that we are approaching an electoral deadline at the national level.
Or would it be a diversionary tactic? Probably more of a diversionary tactic! PravindJugnauth, however, does not have to hold a general election for two or even two and a half years.
In addition, dismissing the municipals only requires a simple majority in Parliament, and he may very well dismiss the Municipals once again next year.
We are already talking about the appointment of Administrative Commissioners as in the time of Sir Seewoosagur Ramgoolam (but then it was under the state of emergency).
The electoral pressure is therefore less than the management of the current crises. The strategy of the MSM is clear: repel all crises; win time; make people forget the accumulating scandals; let people forget. Create diversions.
* Do you see PravindJugnauth going to the end of the mandate, or does he have an interest in surprising everyone and going quickly to the general elections before the situation on the economic level worsens despite what the minister says finances ?
Both scenarios are possible. Typically, a prime minister only prematurely dissolves parliament and goes to a snap election if he has a reasonable chance of winning and is full of optimism, like Navin Ramgoolam in 2000.
Objectively, this is not the case today. Reacting to the worsening economic crisis by advancing the date of the elections does not seem to be a strong enough argument. On the contrary, PravindJugnauth could wait two and a half years for things to improve.
Already we see tourism reinvigorating (470,000 visitors for the first half of 2022, perhaps a million over a full year, which would bring us 50 to 60 billion currencies) or even the current increase in exports (+ 18%). Slowly but surely, the sky could clear up, which would invite PravindJugnauth to wait. Before deciding, he must lower the pressure on his government.
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