Africa-Press – Mozambique. A. Situation analysis
The National Meteorological Institute (INAM) in Mozambique sent a notice on 16 January 2022 alerting to the possible formation of a tropical cyclone due to the high temperatures of the surface water in the Southeast Indian Ocean and Mozambican channel with a low-pressure atmosphere.
The National Delegation of Hydraulic Resources Management (DNGRH) issued a flood risk alert on 18 January 2022 for increased rainfall starting 25 January and a flood risk for the Zambeze, Buzi, Pungoé, Licungo, Ligonha, Meluli, Montepuez, Messalo, and Megaruma river basins as well as the coastal areas of Zambézia, Nampula, and Cabo Delgado Provinces.
At this time, according to the PIROI models with an expected accuracy of 60%, a tropical cyclone or a tropical storm is expected to make landfall on 24 January in the northern region of Mozambique (see image below), while predicted landfall on Madagascar is 22 January 2022. The current predicted windspeeds (farthest known) are up to 108 km/h. The tropical storm may continue to build strength in the Mozambican channel before making landfall again in the central region of Mozambique. There is the prediction of one cyclone making landfall in Mozambique this season, with windspeeds similar to that of TC Idai. As such, the National Society is preparing for a worst-case scenario and for possible impact on Sofala, Nampula and Zambezia.
The total population ‘at risk’ in the regions is as follows:
If the projected scenario is realised, this could mean that significant impact is expected, as these are the provinces that hold the majority of the population in Mozambique, according to the last Census conducted in 2017. Nampula alone is home to around 8 million, Sofala host around 1.5 million people and Zambezia is home to around 7 million people.
Sofala’s Provincial Authorities’ Emergency Operational Centre (EOC) has already been activated and met on 19 January led by the Provincial Administrator with participation of INAM and INDG. The meeting focused on information sharing, with various scenarios presented and discussions around preparedness to respond to the incoming storm. The gaps in prepositioned stocks were also shared (food, NFIs, etc). It is expected that the Nampula EOC will activate in the coming days. These meetings will have CVM and IFRC presence.
Based on the experience form previous cyclones, it is expected there will be flooding during and after the event, requiring a humanitarian intervention.
The National Institute of Disaster Management (INGD) has the lead on organizing the humanitarian effort, however, they rely on coordination with other actors to meet the anticipated needs after landfall. Discussions about preparations have begun at the provincial level and the National Society is a trusted local partner to assist in emergency response activities.
Based on the above, the Mozambican Red Cross Society (CVM) is seeking support through the IFRC Disaster Relief Emergency Fund (DREF) to prepare to lead an effective response, through mobilisation of volunteers to conduct early warning early action activities, to mobilise disaster preparedness stock, to mobilize staff to assist in identifying evacuation centres together with Government and start evacuation. The intervention will also ensure resources to conduct detailed assessments of the needs on the ground after the expected impact of the tropical storm, which will inform any strategy changes in the operation. This early action is planned in support of and coordinated with the local Governments preparedness activities.
Tropical system that brought heavy rain to N #Madagascar the past 24-hours is over the NE Mozambique Channel. It can become TS #Ana before striking N #Mozambique later Mon. Rain some heavy, & local flooding expected in N Mozambique, #Malawi, #Zambia & #Zimbabwe early next week. pic.twitter.com/AGH2sSjcKZ
— Jason Nicholls (@jnmet) January 23, 2022
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