Africa-Press – Mozambique. The planned withdrawal from Cabo Delgado province, in northern Mozambique, of a Southern African Development Community (SADC) military mission that has been aiding the country’s Defence and Security Forces (FDS) fight insurgents, will force a “repositioning” of the latter’s effort, two analysts have told Lusa.
On Saturday, Mozambique’s minister of foreign affairs and cooperation, Verónica Macamo, said that the mission, known as SAMIM, is to leave the country due to financial constraints.
According to Mozambican analyst Fernando Lima, the departure of SAMIM – which is made up of forces from eight countries – is not unexpected and will require a “repositioning” of Mozambique’s FDS to occupy the areas that have been protected by it.
“It is reasonable to believe that the Mozambican government has prepared itself for this new situation, because SAMIM announced a long time ago that its presence in Cabo Delgado had a deadline,” said Lima.
Mozambique’s own forces, he continued, will have a “new projection in terms of occupying territory, so that the insurgents don’t carry out attacks in the areas left by the SADC military and that they don’t try to occupy territory.”
Lima noted that another foreign force, from Rwanda, is expected to “deploy” in areas where SADC troops are still present, should the FDS find it difficult to contain the actions of the armed groups operating in Cabo Delgado.
Another analyst, anthropologist Gil Lauriciano, also said that the authorities have prepared for “a military downsizing” in the face of SAMIM’s withdrawal, because this is a scenario that has been expected for a long time.
“The Mozambican government forces will have to adapt to a new phase without SAMIM,” he said, noting that the presence of foreign forces in Cabo Delgado has allowed time for Mozambique’s armed forces to better prepare for the fight against the insurgents.
“It would be a huge waste if the government forces didn’t take advantage of the presence of partners to better equip themselves against terrorist groups,” Lauriciano emphasised.
He warned, however, that in the short term there may be pressure from the insurgents in the areas vacated by SAMIM, but the FDS will have the capacity to react, because the departure of the SADC forces had already been announced.
SAMIM has been in Cabo Delgado since mid-2021 and, in August 2023, the regional organisation approved the extension of its mandate for a further 12 months, until July 2024, providing for a plan for the progressive withdrawal of its forces.
SAMIM comprises troops from Angola, Botswana, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Lesotho, Malawi, South Africa, the United Republic of Tanzania and Zambia, working in collaboration with the FDS and a military contingent from Rwanda.
The province of Cabo Delgado has been plagued by an armed insurgency for six years, with responsibility for some attacks claimed by the extremist group Islamic State.
The insurgency, which has flared up again since December with several attacks on the population and armed forces, has been met with a full-scale a military response since July 2021, with support first from Rwanda, with more than 2,000 troops, and then from SADC – enabling the authorities to liberate districts near the natural gas projects that have received large-scale foreign investment and which are seen as key to the country’s economic development.
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