Africa-Press – Namibia. An American company has predicted that the commercial aircraft fleet in Africa will more than double over the next two decades, driven by population growth, rapid urbanization, and increased demand for travel within the continent and between Africa and international markets.
In its annual forecast for the commercial aviation market, the company stated that the number of operational aircraft in Africa is expected to rise from approximately 755 aircraft in 2025 to 1,625 aircraft by 2045, necessitating the delivery of around 1,165 new aircraft over the next twenty years. It is anticipated that single-aisle aircraft, primarily used for domestic and regional flights, will account for the largest share of demand, with approximately 870 aircraft deliveries, representing nearly three-quarters of the total new aircraft expected.
The company also forecasts a need for about 240 wide-body aircraft for long-haul international flights, in addition to 15 cargo aircraft. Passenger traffic within Africa is expected to grow by 6.5% annually until 2045, with travel between Africa and the Middle East projected to grow the fastest at a rate of 7.1% annually. Travel between Africa and Europe is expected to grow by about 3.4% annually during the same period.
The commercial marketing manager for Africa and the Middle East at the company stated that the African aviation market is entering a phase of sustainable growth, driven by improved air connectivity, increased travel within the continent, and deepening economic ties.
Major airlines, including Ethiopian Airlines, EgyptAir, and Kenya Airways, dominate a significant portion of the African market, particularly for long-haul flights that rely on aircraft from the company and another major manufacturer. The company also anticipates an increase in the cargo aircraft fleet in Africa from about 60 aircraft currently to 150 aircraft by 2045, supported by the expansion of logistics services, e-commerce, and exports.
The company estimated the value of the African aviation services market, which includes maintenance, repair, upgrades, and digital services, at approximately $140 billion during the period from 2026 to 2045. This expansion is expected to require the addition of around 75,000 new workers in the aviation sector, including 22,000 pilots, 25,000 technicians, and 28,000 cabin crew members.
Global forecasts from the company for 2026 indicated that the global commercial aircraft fleet could exceed 50,000 aircraft by 2045, with the global market needing about 44,000 new aircraft over the next two decades. The company emphasizes that the figures for Africa represent long-term market expectations and are not forecasts for confirmed orders from airlines.
