Africa-Press – South-Africa. Power utility Eskom says that load shedding will be suspended for one more week, announcing that outages will continue to be put on hold until next Friday (5 January 2024).
The group said that this is possible thanks to improved generation performance, lower demand for the holiday period as well as sufficient emergency reserves.
While load shedding is suspended for now, analysts have warned that the situation may change once the holiday periods comes to an end.
The latest performance data from power utility Eskoms shows that the group is maintaining its low levels of breakdowns and keeping the lights on, but increased use of its open-cycle gas turbines means that South Africans could be in for trouble in early 2024.
According to the latest data compiled by independent energy analyst Pieter Jordaan, Eskom has managed to keep unplanned losses at its stations flat at record lows for this year, and lower than losses seen at the same time in 2022 and 2021.
Meanwhile, user demand has continued to tank, giving the utility the room it needs to keep planned maintenance at far higher levels than the seasonal trend.
This means that Eskom should have no problems keeping load shedding suspended, at least for now, while the holiday season is in full swing.
However, while ultra-low holiday demand has bought some respite from blackouts, Eskom’s data shows that it needed to make extensive use of OCGTs last week, Jordaan noted.
“This was due to a sudden drop of around 10% in the output from its coal generators on Thursday morning. Normal demand on the day would have required load shedding of around stage 3.
“Objectively, the start to 2024 should be easier than the previous year, but South Africans should make the most of the current blackout break as the fragility of Eskom’s generating fleet is evident, even during periods of ultra-low demand,” he warned.
The analyst noted that, compared to 2022, December 2023 has required significantly less OCGT peaking support. However, the last two weeks have seen steady increases in the use of these diesel-fuelled generators
“The low-demand backdrop has kept load shedding at bay. But the recently improved breakdown levels may be turning the other way; with possible consequences early in the new year.”
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