Africa-Press – South-Africa. The new SARS commissioner will face the daunting task of collecting over R2 trillion in the 2026/27 year as the taxman continues to ramp up enforcement and clamp down on non-compliance.
Following the South African Revenue Service’s (SARS) 2025/26 revenue announcement on 1 April 2026, the taxman made two things clear: compliance will be supported, and non-compliance will be made more difficult.
This is not a shift in tone, said Latita Africa CEO Jemaine Manikus. Rather, it is a shift in capability, and the numbers make that clear.
SARS collected R2.01 trillion in net revenue in the 2025/26 financial year, surpassing the R2 trillion mark for the first time. The revenue service also generated R301.5 billion in compliance revenue, a 15.8% increase year-on-year.
This was not driven by economic growth, but by a more structured, data-driven approach to enforcement, supported by targeted interventions, artificial intelligence (AI) and integrated systems.
Over 3.7 million outstanding debt cases were resolved, contributing R94 billion to the fiscus. More than 1.7 million verification cases were executed using AI-driven risk profiling, generating R103 billion.
A further R59 billion came from audits, including R30 billion linked to complex and syndicated investigations. This increase is not attributable to mere traditional tax administration but results from a system that is becoming more precise, responsive, and effective.
Manikus explained that SARS can now identify non-compliance at scale, prioritise high-risk cases, and act earlier in the cycle.
Recently, Dr Ngobani Johnstone Makhubu was appointed as the incoming Commissioner of SARS for the next five years. He is set to take over from Edward Kieswetter at the start of May 2026.
With SARS now expecting to collect R2.13 trillion in the 2026/27 financial year, a 5.8% increase, and the tax-to-GDP ratio projected to edge up to 26%, Makhubu does not have an easy road ahead of him.
This transition comes at a defining moment, Manikus said. SARS has entered a new phase, shaped by data, technology and a more deliberate approach to enforcement.
“The foundation has been set. The next phase will be about sustaining that capability while ensuring it supports compliance without constraining business growth,” he said.
“The responsibility ahead is not only about revenue collection. It is about maintaining trust in the system, ensuring fairness, and balancing enforcement with the realities faced by taxpayers.”
At a time where the tax base remains concentrated, Manikus stressed that this balance will be critical to long-term economic stability.
SARS ramps up AI-driven enforcement
SARS has made it clear that it believes most taxpayers want to comply and is committed to making that process simple and accessible.
However, where taxpayers “wilfully abdicate their legal obligation”, SARS will make it difficult and costly. This means enforcement will no longer be a reactive process but a deliberate, targeted, and increasingly difficult to avoid one.
Manikus explained that the system has changed, and staying non-compliant is becoming more difficult to hide, easier to detect, and more expensive to resolve once identified.
The increase in collections is the result of structural shifts, starting with visibility. SARS now has access to significantly more data across banks, employers, transactional platforms and third parties, both locally and globally.
This data is actively analysed and matched to flag inconsistencies faster than ever before, and verification now happens closer to real time, narrowing the gap between filing and detection.
“With machine learning models, SARS has become more precise in identifying patterns, prioritising cases, and allocating enforcement resources,” Manikus said.
“It has moved from broad collection to targeted enforcement. These shifts explain why revenue has increased, even in a low-growth environment.”
According to Manikus, the bigger question is what this means in a system already reliant on a narrow, compliant base.
“As enforcement becomes more effective, the pressure on that base intensifies, and that has real implications for business sustainability, investment and growth,” he said.
For compliant taxpayers, the system is becoming more structured and predictable. However, for non-compliant taxpayers, the environment has changed rapidly.
“The SARS system is no longer asking whether you will be found, locally or abroad. It is asking when,” Manikus warned.
Discrepancies between declared income and lifestyle indicators are easier to detect in salaried taxpayers in South Africa.
Similarly, businesses with inconsistencies across VAT, payroll, financial records, and bank activity are more likely to trigger verification or an audit.
For those operating in less visible or digital parts of the economy, data integration is closing historical gaps. SARS can now identify more cases, recover larger amounts, and do so faster than before.
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