Africa-Press – South-Africa. Load-shedding cost the South African economy an estimated R35 billion between 2007 and 2019, which is roughly equivalent to the impact of the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) on the country’s GDP growth.
Notably, this cost does not include the years in which South Africa experienced the most intense load-shedding in its history, with 335 days of power interruptions recorded in 2023 alone.
Business Leadership South Africa (BLSA) recently revealed the cost of load-shedding to the economy in its Position Paper on South Africa’s Sovereign Credit Rating.
In this paper, BLSA explained that South Africa has made substantial progress in implementing reforms to resolve obstacles hampering the country’s economic growth.
The organisation specifically highlighted progress in energy and logistics reforms, with a turnaround in energy availability being a major milestone achieved over the past few years.
Eskom recently celebrated over 300 consecutive days without interruption in South Africa’s power supply, with only 26 hours of load-shedding recorded in April and May 2025.
This is an impressive achievement and testament to Eskom’s efforts in improving and stabilising its operations.
It is also a far cry from the Eskom of 2023 and prior, when the utility’s output struggled to meet demand, leading to load-shedding that lasted for days on end.
According to data from The Outlier, the worst year for load-shedding on record was 2023, when South Africa experienced 335 days of power cuts.
This is followed by 205 days in 2022, 102 days in 2015, and 83 days in 2024. The years in between also experienced load-shedding, which dates all the way back to 2007.
BLSA explained that while it is difficult to estimate exactly what these years of power interruptions cost South Africa, there has been some research done in an attempt to understand the economic impact.
The National Energy Regulator of South Africa, in collaboration with Nova Economics, estimated that the cost of load-shedding to the economy from 2007 to 2019 was R35 billion.
The impact of load shedding on GDP growth and its economic cost over this period can be seen in the graphs below.
R35 billion we’ll never get back
For reference, BLSA explained that, had all the load-shedding experienced between 2007 and 2019 occurred in a single quarter in 2019, it would have resulted in a 5% contraction in real GDP growth.
“To put this into perspective, the total cost of load shedding at R35 billion is roughly equivalent to the impact the 2008/9 financial crisis had on GDP growth,” BLSA pointed out.
This is roughly in line with estimates from the Reserve Bank, which also discussed the economic impact of load-shedding in a 2023 economic note.
The Reserve Bank’s Theo Janse van Rensburg and Kgotso Morema explained that South Africa’s economic growth temporarily recovered after a sharp decline during the GFC.
However, it had been on a declining trend since it peaked at just below 6% in the final quarter of 2006.
They said that, while growth averaged 3.6% per annum between 2000 and 2009, it declined to 1.75% between 2010 and 2019, and further decelerated to 1.0% between 2015 and 2019.
“South Africa’s disappointing economic performance in the post-GFC period can be attributed to negative productivity shocks, exacerbated by corruption and misgovernment,” they said.
In addition, they discussed the part load-shedding played in this slowing growth, estimating the impact of power interruptions on GDP growth at between -0.7 and -3.2 percentage points.
“Load-shedding has severe negative implications for production and overall confidence in the economy,” they said.
While this is time South Africa will never get back, it is also positive that the reduction and eventual eradication of load-shedding will be good for the economy’s future growth.
BLSA said that, without the cost burden of load-shedding on the economy, improved growth prospects might now be seen in the coming years.
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