Africa-Press – Uganda. A growing gap between Uganda’s economic ambitions and its actual budget spending has raised fresh concerns about the viability of the government’s Tenfold Growth Strategy.
Findings from internal reviews of the Financial Year 2024/25 budget point to what has been described as a “fiscal disconnect,” with critical growth sectors receiving significantly less funding than expected. The concerns were highlighted by the Office of the Auditor General Uganda in its report for the period.
Under the strategy, the government identified four “anchor” sectors, commonly referred to as ATMS, as the primary engines expected to drive the country toward a $500 billion economy within 15 years.
However, the Auditor General’s assessment indicates that the financial support directed toward these pillars remains “paltry,” raising questions about implementation.
The Tenfold Growth Strategy 2025 places the services sector at the center of Uganda’s transformation agenda, citing a multiplier effect of 2.61.
Agriculture and industry follow with multipliers of 2.55 and 2.30 respectively, underscoring their potential to generate significant secondary economic activity from targeted investment.
These projections form the backbone of the National Planning Authority Uganda’s framework under the Fourth National Development Plan, Fourth National Development Plan (NDP IV), which is anchored on achieving structural economic transformation by 2040.
Despite this, budget analysis shows that government spending has largely favored “enablers” such as infrastructure, security, human capital development, and law and order. While these areas are essential for long-term growth, critics argue that they have overshadowed direct investment in the productive sectors expected to drive economic expansion.
This imbalance, analysts say, suggests that while the state is building the foundation for growth, it is not adequately funding the sectors meant to fully utilize that foundation.
In response, the Accounting Officer confirmed the rollout of a new monitoring system known as the “ATMS Accelerator Actions Tracker,” designed to track how much of the national budget is allocated to high-impact growth areas.
Government officials defended the current approach, explaining that the 2024/25 budget deliberately prioritized foundational investments. However, they signaled a policy shift in the upcoming Financial Year 2025/26, promising a more balanced and “comprehensive” allocation toward the ATMS sectors.
Authorities maintain that the returns on current investments will become more visible in the later stages of the strategy, ultimately driving Uganda toward its $500 billion economic target.
However, the Auditor General’s report cautions that unless budget allocations are more closely aligned with strategic priorities, the vision of a tenfold increase in GDP risks remaining largely aspirational.
